The object of this collection of essays is to acquaint the English­ speaking reader with the work of the IFO Institute for Economic Re­ search, tlunich, in the field of business cycle surveys. These written surveys of about 10,000 businessmen in the West German economy collect information which is not otherwise contained in the official statis­ tics. The information in question primarily involves entrepreneurial judgements and anticipations (plans and expectations). These variables have proved to be very useful for economic diagnosis and prognosis. In the meantime, the survey methods developed by the IFO Institute have been adopted by 16 different countries throughout the world. The monthly business cycle surveys carried out by the EEC Commission, Brussels, in the industries of the member countries are also based to a large extent on the IFO methods. This is the first publication in English to furnish a comprehensive review of the IFO survey technique and the possibilities of utilization of this survey method in business cycle research. Efforts to develop new economic indicators on the basis of judgement and anticipation data have not yet terminated; many theoretical and methodical questions have still to be answered, and perhaps many have yet to be posed. Accordingly, the following collection of ten essays is not a final stock-taking but an interim report on several paths taken by the IFO Institute in its search for economic indicators. Possibly, some of these will later prove to have been a roundabout way.

Inhalt

I The Finger on the Pulse of the Economy.- How it Started.- On the Special Nature of the Surveys.- Gaining information.- Saving time.- Synchronization.- Data collection and data analysis in one hand.- Reaction speed and adaptability.- Information community.- Construction and Development of the Surveys.- Lines of Scientific Development.- Analytical-empirical development.- Methodological developments.- Theoretical bases.- Worldwide Diffusion.- Summary.- Notes.- II The Business Situation: On the Meaning of an Undetermined Survey Variable.- Entrepreneurial Judgements in the IFO Business Survey.- An Empirical Definition of the Concept "Business Situation".- Orientation variables.- Scales of comparison.- Examining the Survey Results on an Aggregate Level.- Summary.- Notes.- III Business Cycle Indicators from Qualitative Data.- Business Cycle and Indicators.- The Ideal Indicator.- On the Selection of Indicators.- Evaluation Data Closer to the Ideal Indicator.- An Indicator System Approach.- An Example: Qualitative Indicators for Consumer Goods.- Relation between manufacture and distribution.- Stock keeping as a major unknown quantity.- Some experience with indicators.- Summary and Outlook.- Notes.- IV The "Business Climate" as Leading Indicator.- The Business Climate as a Diffusion Index.- Experience with the Indicator "Business Climate".- Summary.- Notes.- V Branch Indicators for the Future Demand of Firms.- Forecasting Saves Costs.- The Construction of Turning Point Indicators.- Graph Analysis.- Example 1: Plastics manufacturing machinery.- Example 2: Aluminium-light metal casting.- Example 3. Basic industry.- Quantitative Forecasting Approaches.- A Forecasting Function for Consumer Durables.- Summary.- Notes.- VI Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data.- The Problem of Forecasting Investment.- The Data.- The Models Investigated.- Planning practices, and specification of the realization function.- The reference model.- Results of the Investigation.- Results of estimation.- Results of the forecast simulation.- Summary.- Notes.- VII Expectations Curbing Growth.- Less Growth Anticipated.- Purposive Pessimism Only?.- Psychosocial Stimuli as Stress Factors for the Economy.- Summary.- Notes.- VIII Satisfaction and Growth Expectations in Industry and Trade.- Preliminary Note.- More than 5,000 Replies.- Excursus: What is Satisfaction?.- Satisfaction Predominates.- No Improvement of Living Conditions Expected.- Widespread Pessimism about Economic Growth.- Dissatisfaction with Political Conditions.- Noise Impairs Living Conditions.- Despite Stress, Vocation Satisfies.- Economic Improvement Ranks First.- Occupation Largely Determines Satisfaction.- Summary.- Notes.- IX Basic Research with Qualitative Data and with Anticipations.- Investigations at the Micro-Level.- Anticipations depending on the previous month's ex ante and ex post responses.- Forecasting KT balances with the aid of a modified Markoff procedure.- Investigations at the Macro-Level.- Estimating and forecasting the smooth component contained in the production index.- Use of the weather component in the business survey for analysis of construction activity.- Investigations of Investment Survey Data.- Summary.- Notes.- X Integrating the IFO Business Surveys into the Framework of Entrepreneurial Variables.- Characteristics of Goods.- Equilibrium and Disequilibrium.- The Disequilibrium in the Light of Conventional Statistics and Business Surveys.- Selected Variables in the IFO Surveys.- Conclusion.- Notes.- Annex.- A. The IFO Institute for Economic Research.- B. The Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency SurveysCIRET.- C. List of Institutions Carrying Out Trade Cycle Surveys.- D. The Authors.