Decision-makers at all levels are being confronted with novel complexities and uncertainties and face long-term challenges which require foresight about long-term future prospects, assumptions, and strategies. This book explores how foresight studies can be systematically undertaken and used in this context. It explicates why and how methods like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and roadmapping should be applied when dealing with high levels of uncertainty. The scope of the book moves beyond "narrow" technology foresight, towards addressing systemic interrelations between social, technological, economic, environmental, and political systems. Applications of foresight tools to such fields as energy, cities, health, transportation, education, and sustainability are considered as well as enabling technologies including nano-, bio-, and information technologies and cognitive sciences. The approaches will be illustrated with specific actual cases.

Autorentext

Ian Miles is Head of the Laboratory of Economics of Innovation at Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University - Higher School of Economics (HSE), Moscow, and Professor of Technological Innovation and Social Change at Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR), Manchester Business School. He graduated in Psychology from the University of Manchester and received a higher Doctorate in Social Science from the same University. He previously worked at the Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex. His research includes studies of service innovation and knowledge-intensive business services, Foresight and futures studies, information technology innovation and social indicators. He has published 12 authored books, 12 edited books, 100 journal articles and over 200 reports and book chapters.<

Ozcan Saritas is Research Professor at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economicsof Knowledge, National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow; a Senior Research Fellow at the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR), Manchester Business School; and the editor of Foresight: the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy. Ozcan's research focuses on innovation research with particular emphasis on socioeconomic and technological Foresight. With a PhD from the Foresight and Prospective Studies Programme of the University of Manchester, Ozcan has introduced novel concepts like Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM), which has been applied successfully to address long-term issues and Grand Challenges involved in Sustainable Development, Renewable Energies, ICTs, Nanotechnologies, Higher Education and Developmental Studies. More information on Ozcan's research and publications can be found at www.systemicforesight.com

Professor Alexander Sokolov is Deputy Director of the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge and Director of the International Foresight Centre at the Higher School of Economics (HSE). He authored over 120 publications in Russia and internationally devoted to Foresight and S&T&I policies, managed several national S&T foresight exercises in Russia, participated in dozens of international projects and a number of high-level expert groups at the OECD and other international organisations.

Inhalt
1 Introduction.- 2 Foresight for STI - What and Why.- 3 Initiation-Scoping and Managing ForSTI.- 4 Interaction - Participation and Recruitment.- 5 Intelligence - Environmental and Horizon Scanning.- 6 Intelligence - Delphi.- 7 Imagination - Scenarios and Alternative Futures.- 8 Integration - Modelling.- 9 From Integration to Interpretation - Translating ForSTI into Strategies.- 10 Intervention and Impact - Outcomes, Action and Evaluation.- 11 Conclusion.