Guide for Making Acute Risk Decisions

This book presents a guidance on a large range of decision aids for risk analysts and decision makers in industry so that vital decisions can be made in a more consistent, logical, and rigorous manner. It provide good industry practices on how risk decision making is conducted in the chemical industry from many risk information sources as well as all the elements that need to be addressed to ensure good decisions are being made.
Topics Include: Identifying Risk Decisions, A Risk Decision Strategy for Process Safety, Case Studies in Risk Decision Making Failures, Guidance on Selecting Decision Aids, Templates for Decision Making in Risk-Based Process Safety, Understanding Process Hazards & Worst Possible Consequences, Management of Change as an Exercise in Risk Identification, Inherently Safer Design as an Exercise in Risk Tradeoff Analysis, Using LOPA and Risk Matrices in Risk Decisions, Using CPQRA and Safety Risk Criteria in Risk Decisions, Group Decision Making, Avoiding Decision Traps, Documentation of Process Safety Risk Decisions

Autorentext

The Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) was founded in 1985 to develop technology and management practices that mitigate or eliminate chemical process accidents. Since that time, CCPS has published more than 100 books and held dozens of international conferences, each representing the most advanced thinking in process safety. CCPS is supported by the contributions and voluntary participation of more than 160 companies globally. CCPS is also the world's largest provider of undergraduate engineering curriculum materials through its SACHE program, with more than 160 universities around the world participating.

Inhalt

Contents v

List of Tables xi

List of Figures xiii

Acronyms and Abbreviations xv

Glossary xix

Acknowledgements xxxi

Preface xxxiii

Introduction 35

1.1 History of Approaches to Process Safety Management 35

1.2 The Paradigm of Risk-Based Process Safety Management 36

1.2.1 Risk Based Process Safety (RBPS) Management 36

1.2.2 Risk Decisions Characteristics 39

1.3 A Risk Decision Making Method 40

1.4 Road Map and Relationship of this Book with Other Material 41

1.5 Risk Decisions during Process Life Cycle 43

1.6 Pros and cons 44

1.7 Summary 44

Key Concepts in Risk Management 47

2.1 Risk Management Process 47

2.2 Risk Identification Risk Scenario 47

2.2.1 Risk Identification 49

2.3 Risk Analysis - Consequences and Frequency 49

2.3.1 Consequences and Impacts 50

2.3.2 Frequency 50

2.3.3 Risk Estimation 51

2.4 Risk Evaluation 56

2.4.1 Decision criteria 56

2.4.2 Qualitative, Semi-Quantitative and Quantitative Risk Criteria 59

2.4.3 Risk Reduction Factor 61

2.5 Summary 62

Understanding Process Hazards, Consequences and Risks 63

3.1 Process Hazards 63

3.1.1 Acute Toxicity 63

3.1.2 Flammability and Explosivity 67

3.1.3 Chemical Reactivity 70

3.1.4 Significant or Large Environmental Release Hazards 72

3.1.5 Other Process Hazards 72

3.2 Risk Identification 73

3.3 Consequences and Impacts 73

3.4 Frequency 74

3.5 Risk 76

Risk Decisions and Strategies 79

4.1 Objectives and attributes 79

4.1.1 Objectives 79

4.1.2 Attributes 79

4.2 Process Life Cycle and Alternatives 81

4.3 The Decision Process 82

4.3.1 Define the Problem 82

4.3.2 Evaluate the Baseline Risk 83

4.3.3 Identify the Alternatives 83

4.3.4 Screen the Alternatives 84

4.3.5 Make the Decision 84

4.4 Objectives and Outcomes 84

4.5 Tradeoffs 85

4.6 Uncertainty 87

4.7 Risk Tolerance 90

4.8 Linked Decisions 91

4.9 Decision trees 92

Decision Making 95

5.1 Defining the Decision Problem 95

5.1.1 Types of Decisions 95

5.2 Selecting a Decision Tool 97

5.2.1 Progression of Risk Analysis Tools 97

5.2.2 Factors in Decision Tool Selection 98

5.3 Assembling the Appropriate Assessment Resources 101

5.3.1 Team Members 101

5.3.2 Opening Meeting 104

5.3.2 Tools/Methods 104

5.3.3 Time 105

5.4 Define decision criteria 105

5.4.1 Process Safety Risk Criteria 105

5.4.2 Other Criteria 107

5.5 Making the decision 107

5.5.1 Characteristics of Decision Aids 107

5.5.2 Appling the Decision Tools, Aids, and Criteria 108

5.5.3 Recognizing and Dealing with Uncertainties 111

5.5.4 Recognizing the Need to Escalate the Decision 113

5.6 Finalizing decision and the approval process 114

5.7 Communicating, Documenting, and implementing the Decision 114

5.7 Summary 116

Potential Decision Traps 117

6.1 Introduction 117

6.2 Anchoring Trap 117

6.2.1 Anchoring Trap Example, Titanic 118

6.2.2 Countering the Anchoring Trap 118

6.3 Status-Quo Trap 119

6.3.1 Status Quo Examples 119

6.3.2 Countering the Status-Quo Trap 120

6.4 Sunk-cost and escalation of commitment trap 120

6.4.1 Countering the Sunk-Cost Trap 121

6.5 Confirming-Evidence Trap 121

6.5.1 Countering the Confirming Evidence Trap 122

6.6 Framing Trap 122

6.6.1 Framing Example 123 <p&...