Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting - plausible ranges for population growth using biol ogical models and epidemiological time series data - the financing of long term care programs - the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures - forecasting cancer risks and risk factors As a result, this wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all those whose research touches on these topics.

Inhalt

One. Introduction.- 1 The Scientific and Policy Needs for Improved Health Forecasting Models for Elderly Populations.- Two. Methodological Issues.- 2 Actuarial and Demographic Forecasting Methods.- 3 Demographic Change in the United States, 1970-2050.- 4 Health Forecasting and Models of Aging.- Three. Forecasting Techniques for Specific Diseases.- 5 Cancer Forecasting: Cohort Models of Disease Progression and Mortality.- 6 The Effects of Risk Factors on Male and Female Cardiovascular Risks in Middle and Late Age.- 7 Frailty and Forecasts of Active Life Expectancy in the United States.- 8 Risk Factors Affecting Multiple-Disease Efficacy and Effectiveness of Intervention Programs.- Four. Effects of Interventions on Health Costs.- 9 Estimates and Projections of Dementia-Related Service Expenditures.- 10 A Forecasting Model for the Assessment of Medical Technologies: End-Stage Renal Disease.- 11 Projections of the Aged Supplementary Security Income Population: The Implications of Uncertainty.- 12 Evaluation of Long-Term Care: Estimation of Health Transitions in Frail Populations.- 13 Financing and Use of Long-Term Care for the Elderly.- Five. Longitudinal Research: Current Status and Future Outlook.- 14 Molecular Biological Approaches to Understanding Aging and Senescence.- 15 Biomedical Research and Changing Concepts of Disease and Aging: Implications for Long-Term Health Forecasts for Elderly Populations.