Hydraulic, hydrologic and water resources engineers have been concerned for a long time about failure phenomena. One of the major concerns is the definition of a failure event E, of its probability of occurrence PtE), and of the complementary notion of reliability. However, as the stochastic aspects of hydraulics and water resources engineering were developed, words such as "failure," "reliability," and "risk" took on different meanings for different specialists. For example, "risk" is defined in a Bayesian framework as the expected loss resulting from a precisely defined failure event, while according to the practice of stochastic hydraulics it is the probability of occurrence of a failure event. The need to standardize the various concepts and operational definitions generated numerous exciting discussions between the co-editors of this book during 1983-84 when L. Duckstein, under sponsorship of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (FRG), was working with E. Plate at the Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources of the University of Karlsruhe. After consulting with the Scientific Affairs Division of NATO, an organizing committee was formed. This comittee -­ J. Bernier (France), M. Benedini (Italy), S. Sorooshian (U. S. A. ), and co-directors L. Duckstein (U. S. A. ) and E. J. Plate (F. R. G. ) -- brought into being this NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI). Precisely stated, the purpose of this ASI was to present a tutorial overview of existing work in the broad area of reliability while also pointing out topics for further development.

Inhalt

I. Introduction.- Water Engineering Reliability and Risk: A System Framework.- II. Reliability and Risk in Structures.- II.1 Design Concepts Based on Risk and Reliability of Structures for Uncorrelated Inputs.- Reliability in Hydraulic Design.- Engineering Risk in Regional Drought Studies.- Incidents and Failures of Hydraulic Structures Subject to Independent Floods.- Reliability of Hydraulic Structures Possessing Random Loading and Resistance.- Probabilistic Design of Water-Retaining Structures.- II.2 Risk Based Assessment of Dam Safety.- Use of Risk-Based Analysis in Making Decisions on Dam Safety.- A Comparison of Methods for Risk Assessment of Dams.- Risk Analysis Considerations for Dam Safety.- Consequences of the Failure of a Water Storage System.- III. Reliability and Risk in Water Supply Systems.- III.1 Water Supply Systems: Uncorrelated Inputs.- Reliability of Water Supply Systems.- Application of Models for Reliability Assessment in Reservoir Operation.- III.2 Water Supply Systems: Correlated Inputs.- The Return Period of a Reservoir System Failure.- Reliability in Multipurpose Reservoir Operation: Case Studies with Correlated Inflows.- Engineering Risk in Flood Studies Using Multivariate Partial Duration Series.- Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater in a Problem of Environmental Protection: A Case in Salento Peninsula in Southern Italy.- IV. Reliability and Risk as Factors in Decision Making.- IV. 1 Elements of Uncertainty Analysis for Decision-Making.- The Impact of Catchment Modeling on Hydrologic Reliability.- Empirical and Causal Models in Hydrologic Reliability Analysis.- Elements of Bayesian Analysis of Uncertainty in Hydrological Reliability and Risk Models.- IV. 2 Applications and Advances.- Reliability Estimation of Underground Water Control Systems Under Natural and Sample Uncertainty.- Target-Related Reliability in Surface Water System Operation.- Bayesian Analysis: Further Advances and Applications.- IV. 3 Multicriterion and Conflict Analysis.- Risk Aspects in the Determination of Optimal Cropping Patterns Hiessl.- Reliability Aspects of Multicriterion Watershed Management.- A Min-Max Operating Rule for the Management of a Multipurpose Reservoir.- Formal Incorporation of Risk into Conflict Analysis.