Lawrence Klein, University of Pennsylvania Jaime Marquez, Federal Reserve BoarrI* All examination of the economics literature over the last twenty years reveals a marked tendency towards polarisation. On the one hand, there has been a propensity to develop theoretical models which have little connection with either empirical verification or problems requiring immediate attention. On the other iland, empirical analyses are generally typified by testing for its own sake, with limited examination of the implications of the results. As a result, the number of papers confronting theory with facts towards the solution of economic problems has been on the decline for years. To fill this growing gap in the literature, we have invited a number of authors to write papers using both theoretical and empirical techniques to address current issues of interest to the profession at large: the US trade deficit and the global implications of policies that attempt to reduce it, the international ramifications of the debt crisis, the international oil market and its implications for the US oil industry, and the development of new econometric techniques. In addressing these issues, each author has approached the subject matter from an eclectic standpoint - that is, avoiding strict adherence to a given doctrine.

Autorentext

Jaime Marquez received his PhD in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1983. Since then, he has been a staff economist of the Federal Reserve Board. He also serves as a professorial lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University.

Inhalt

I: Frontiers in Forecasting and Econometric Modelling.- 1. Combinations of High and Low Frequency Data in Macroeconometric Models.- 2. Stochastic Simulation, Prediction and Validation of Nonlinear Models.- 3. An Integrated Exhaustible Resource Model of Copper Market Dynamics.- II: Trade, Debt, and Development.- 4. The Impact of Commodity Price Instability: Experiments with a General Equilibrium Model for Indonesia.- 5. Commodity Price Contractions, Debt and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Venezuelan Case.- 6. Income and Price Elasticities of Foreign Trade Flows: Econometric Estimation and Analysis of the US Trade Deficit.- III: Industrial Organisation and Government Policy.- 7. Previous Cartel Experience: Any Lessons for OPEC?.- 8. The Implications for Future Contingency Planning of the 1979 Gasoline Shortage.- 9. International Trade, Investment, and American Cities and Regions.