Technological change has been recognized as the major contributor to economic growth and has become one of the most important challenges to policy makers and managers. Many excellent books and papers have been written on the subject. Most of these deal with the macro or micro economic impact of technological change or the technological change process from invention and discovery to innovation, development, and final maturity as well as ultimate obsolescence of technology. This book is designed to present technological change as a decision process and explain the use of recently developed methods for the effective management of technological change. In particular, techniques for the effective choice among technological alternatives, timing of the introduction of new technology both in terms of its own status and that of the technology to be replaced if any, and the rate and method of introduction of new technology are presented. Management of technology is a complex decision process which is affected by both internal and external factors. The purpose of this book is to instruct the reader in effective technology deciSion making which involves the evaluation of the status of technology in use if any, the problem to be solved or output to be obtained, determination of environmental and internal constraints, and the competitive environment or market conditions which affect the technology decisions.

Inhalt

1. Introduction.- 1.1 Technological Change.- 1.2 Factors Influencing Technological Change.- 1.3 Technological Voids and Technological Developments.- 1.4 Acquisition of New Technology.- 1.5 Management of Technological Change.- 1.6 Modelling in the Management of Technological Change.- 1.7 The Technological Change Process.- 1.7.1 Technological Change Process Stages.- 1.8 Comparative Management of Technological Change.- 2. Research in the Management of Technological Change.- 2.1 Industry Studies.- 2.2 Experience and Technology Change.- 2.3 Management of Studies.- 2.3.1 Comparative Management of Technological Change.- 2.4 Summary.- 3. Economics of Production and Technological Change.- 3.1 Characteristics of Isocost Curves and Isoquants.- 3.2 Production Function Theory.- 3.2.1 Neo-classical Production Functions.- 3.2.2 Vintage Model: Substitutability Before and After the Investment.- 3.3 Costs of Production.- 3.4 Increase in Production Input Costs.- 4. Productivity and Technological Change.- 4.1 Experience Curve Analysis.- 4.1.1 Use of Experience Curves.- 4.1.2 Simple Transition Model.- 4.2 Performance Evaluation and Productivity Measurements.- 4.2.1 Total Productivity Index.- 4.2.2 Computation of Productivity Change.- 4.2.3 An Example of Productivity Maximization.- 4.3 Difficulties in Defining and Measuring Productivity.- 4.4 The Impact of Productivity.- 5. Modes of Technological Change.- 5.1 Endogenous Factors and Their Effect on Technological Change.- 5.2 Exogenous Factors and Their Effect on Technological Change.- 5.3 Modes of Technological Change.- 5.4 Diffusion and Substitution of Technology.- 5.4.1 Substitution Models for Technological Change.- 5.4.2 Use of the Innovation Index in a Determining Market Substitution Index.- 5.5 Origins of Technological Change.- 6. Sources of New Technology.- 6.1 Technology Acquisitions.- 6.1.1 Motivation, Rewards, and Incentives.- 6.2 Technology Transfer.- 6.2.1 Effectiveness of Technology Transfer Directed Toward Less Developed Countries.- 6.2.2 Technology Transfer Pricing.- 6.3 Technology Licensing.- 6.4 Patents and Other Methods of Protection of Inventions.- 6.4.1 Patent Protection.- Appendix 6A - Basic Concepts of Game Theory or Strategic Competitive Decisionmaking.- 7. Technology Pricing and Economic Evaluation.- 7.1 Pricing New Technology - Impact of Diffusion and Marketing.- 7.2 Technology Pricing Strategies.- 7.2.1 Technology Pricing Analysis.- 7.3 Pricing Mature Technology-Substitution Effects.- 7.4 Cost/Benefit Analysis of Learning and Technological Change.- 7.4.1 Objectives of Technological Change.- 7.4.2 Technological Change Decision Problems.- 8.0 Technological Forecasting.- 8.1 Methods and Techniques of Technological Forecasting.- 8.2 The Delphi and Other Subjective or Expert Opinion Techniques for Technological Forecasting.- 8.2.1 The Delphi Technological Forecasting Technique.- 8.3 Cross-Impact Forecasting of Technological Change.- 8.3.1 KSIM-QSIM.- 8.3.2 Recent Improvements and Revisions of the Cross-Impact Method.- Appendix 8A - Example of a Cross-Impact Technology Forecast - Shipbuilding.- 9. Product, Process, and Service Innovation Cycles.- 9.1 Diffusion of Innovations.- 9.1.1 Commercialization of Innovations.- 9.2 Capacity Expansion and Cost Reduction.- 9.2.1 The Effect of the Size of the Firm.- 9.3 Product Innovation and Development.- 9.4 Management of Innovation.- 9.5 The Innovation Process.- 10. Decision Theory and Hierarchial Processes.- 10.1 Alternative Process Technology Choice Decisions.- 10.2 Choice Among Technological Alternatives.- 10.2.1 Mixed Qualitative and Quantitative Technological Choice Problems.- Appendix 10A - Case Study - Selection of an Approach and Landing System for Kilimanjaro International Airport (Kia-Tanzania).- Appendix 10B - Case Study II - Technological Change Decisions in Copies and Products.- Appendix 10C - The Analytic Hierarchy Process.- 11. The Economic Impact of Technological Change.- 11.1 International Flow of Technology.- 11.2 Comparative Management of Technological Change.- 11.2.1 Comparative Management Factors.- 11.2.2 Rationale for Comparative Management Analysis.- 11.2.3 Criteria for Measurement of Management Processes.- 11.2.4 Technological Change and the Management Organization.- 11.3 Comparative Management Models.- 11.3.1 Model Evaluation.- 11.4 Impact of Technological Change on Worker and Manager.- 11.4.1 Labor/Management Cooperation.- 11.5 Government Role.- 11.5.1 Developing Country Technology Gap.- Appendix 11A - Summary of Comparative Management of Technology Studies.- Appendix 11B - Japanese and U.S. Technology Development.- Appendix 11C - Support of Technology Development.- 12. Environmental Impact and Future Role of Technological Change.- 12.1 Impact of Technological Change on Developing Countries.- 12.2 Environmental Impact of Technological Change in Industrial Countries.- 12.3 Technological Change Decision Making.- 12.3.1 Future Management Challenges.- 12.4 Technological Risk Management.- 12.4.1 Probabilistic Technology Risk Assessment.- 13. Strategic Management of Technological Change.