Valuation of Network Effects in Software Markets

The customer base is an important value driver of software companies and a reliable prediction of its development is fundamental for investment decisions. A particularity in software markets is that an individual's purchasing decision is often influenced by other users' choices. Although such customer network effects are evident, their quantitative assessment remain elusive with conventional approaches. This book contributes to closing this gap by developing methods for measuring network effects and their implications for valuation in software markets. Based on the theory of complex networks the book reveals that such diffusion processes highly depend on structural properties of customer networks. Moreover, it depicts that such insights are contributions to improve the quality of valuations in software markets. But the implications of this research also comprise social and political aspects as they can be applied in order to prevent corporate failures in all network effect markets.

Zusammenfassung
This book is the productof my research at the EndowedChair of Corporate Finance and Capital Markets at the European Business School. Many people devoted their inspiration, time, and knowledge in order to support me with my interdisciplinary research. Thank you all for your support. Especially, I thank my academic supervisor Prof. Ulrich Hommel, Ph.D., who provided me with the freedom to pursue my research interests and who always s- ported me generously. In addition, I am very grateful to my co-supervisor Prof. Dr. Susanne Strahringer (TU Dresden), who graciously accepted the task of refer- ing my book. Also, I thank Prof. Dr. Matthias Krause of the Chair for Theoretical Computer Science in Mannheim for the technical and computer scienti?c support. During my research visits I received generous support from Prof. Yaneer Bar- Yam (NECSI and Harvard) and Prof. John D. Sterman (MIT), who introduced me to the ?eld of System Dynamics and Complex Systems, as well as from Prof. Victor Mossotti (U.S. Geological Survey), Prof. Hiroki Sayama (NECSI and Bingh- ton), Prof. Markus de Aguiar (Universidade Estadual de Campinas), Prof. Michel Baranger (MIT), Prof. Jay W. Forrester (MIT), and Prof. Brian D. Josephson (Cambridge). Thank you very much for numerous inspiring discussions.

Inhalt
Background and Motivation.- Valuation in Modern Software Markets.- Investment and Company Valuation.- Modern Software Markets.- Reconsideration of Valuation in Software Markets.- Modeling Network Effects in Software Markets.- Network Economics in Software Markets.- Customer-Equity Valuation in Software Markets.- Adoption and Diffusion Models for Software Markets.- Network Effects Valuation Framework For Software Markets.- Reconsideration of Network Effects in Software Markets.- Modeling Customer Networks from a Complex Networks Perspective.- Complex Networks Theory.- Complex Networks Adoption and Diffusion Simulator.- Complex Networks Analysis of Customer Networks.- Complex Networks Framework for Valuation in Software Markets.- Reconsideration of Complex Customer Networks in Software Markets.- Summary, Implications, Limitations, and Outlook.- Summary of Findings.- Implications of Results.- Research Limitations.- Research Outlook.- Executive Summary.