A Century of Crisis and Conflict in the International System

This book is designed to present a fully developed theory of international crisis and conflict, along with substantial evidence of these two closely related phenomena. The book begins with a discussion of these topics at a theoretical level, defining and elaborating on core concepts: international crisis, interstate conflict, severity, and impact. This is followed by a discussion of the international system, along with two significant illustrations, the Berlin Blockade crisis (1948) and the India-Pakistan crisis over Kashmir (1965-66). The book then presents a unified model of crisis, focusing on the four phases of an international crisis, which incorporate the four periods of foreign policy crises for individual states. Findings from thirteen conflicts representing six regional clusters are then analyzed, concluding with a set of hypotheses and evidence on conflict onset, persistence, and resolution.

Auteur
Michael Brecher is the R.B. Angus Professor of Political Science at McGill University, Canada.

Contenu

1. Multiple Paths to Knowledge
   A. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS BEHAVIOR (ICB) PROJECT: OVERVIEWOrigins Colleagues, Coders and Advisers Rationale and Methods Objectives Formative Publications (1977-1980) Case Studies Qualitative Analysis Data Sets and Aggregate Analysis
   B. MILLENNIAL REFLECTIONS ON CRISIS AND CONFLICTAdvocates and CriticsRationaleDiversity in International Studies
   C. INTELLECTUAL ODYSSEY: PHASES, THEMES, CONCEPTS Phases and Themes Political Leadership and Charisma (Odyssey I) Dynamics of the Arab/Israel Conflict (Odyssey II) Interstate Crises and Conflicts (Odyssey III) Concepts Subordinate State System Foreign Policy System International System Foreign Policy Crisis International Crisis Unified Model of Crisis Crisis Severity Crisis Impact Protracted Conflict Polycentrism
2. Theory I: Core Concepts and Systems
   A. CORE CONCEPTSInternational Crisis and Protracted ConflictSeverity and Impact
   B. SYSTEM AND CRISISInternational SystemSystemic CrisisBerlin Blockade Crisis 1948-49India/Pakistan Crisis over Kashmir 1965-66Severity and Impact Unit-System Linkages
3. Theory II: Unified Model of Crisis (UMC) and the ICB Framework
   A. UNIFIED MODEL OF CRISISConceptual Guidelines: Overview Onset Phase--Pre-Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Onset; Crisis Onset Model Escalation Phase--Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Escalation De-Escalation Phase--End Crisis Period: Hypotheses on De-EscalationImpact Phase--Post-Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Impact
   B. CHANGES IN ICB STRUCTURERecent Additions to Crisis-Conflict ProjectOverview of Findings
4. General Findings: Foreign Policy Crises
   Dataset: 29 CasesContext Dimensions Methodology in Case Studies: An Unresolved DebateGeneral Findings on Attributes of Foreign Policy Crises: Trigger Triggering Entity Duration Decisions Decision-Makers ...