COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics

This book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics. 

Dr. Igor Nesteruk is Leading Researcher at the Institute of Hydromechanics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and Head of Laboratory of Biomedical Electronics at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. His main research interests are inverse non-steady problems of fluid mechanics, supercavitation, flow control, biomedical signal processing and mathematical simulations of infectious diseases.

Auteur

Dr. Igor Nesteruk is Leading Researcher at the Institute of Hydromechanics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and Head of Laboratory of Biomedical Electronics at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. His main research interests are inverse non-steady problems of fluid mechanics, supercavitation, flow control, biomedical signal processing and mathematical simulations of infectious diseases.

Contenu

Introduction

1. Data used for calculations, comparisons and verifications

2. Early stages of epidemics and exponential growth

3. Comparisons of the early stages of Covid-19 pandemic in different regions

4. Classical SIR model and the exact solution of differential equations

5. Statistics-based procedure of the parameter identification for the classical SIR model

6. Probability of meeting an infected person

7. Estimations of the effective reproduction number

8. Results of SIR simulation for the pandemic dynamics in different countries and regions

9. Hidden periods of Covid-19 pandemic

10. Long-time predictions for the pandemic dynamics

11. Identification of the new waves of the Covid-19 pandemic

12. General SIR model and its exact solution

13. Procedures of the parameter identification for the waves of epidemics

14. Applications of the general SIR model for calculations of the Covid-19 epidemic waves in Ukraine

15. Global waves of Covid-19 pandemic

16. Conclusions