Modern Time Series Analysis in Forest Products Markets

Since 1993 a major research programme, "Stochastic Decision Analysis in Forest Management" has been running at Department of Economics and Natural Resources, The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University (KVL), Copenhagen, in collaboration with Institute of Mathematical Statistics, University of Copenhagen (KU). The research is funded by the two Universities; The Danish Agricultural and Veterinary Research Council; The Danish Research Academy; The National Forest and Nature Agency; and Danish Informatics Network in the Agricultural Sciepces (DINA). A first international workshop in the research programme was held 5 - 8 August, 1996 at Eldrupgaard, Denmark, within the frameworkofacollaborationagreementbetween University of California at Berkeley (UCB) and the Danish Universities, and funded by The Danish Research Academy and the L0venholm Foundation. Having participated in the workshop, Professor Peter Berck (UCB) suggested that the papers be published along with selected papers in the same scientific field, i.e. mainly cointegration analysis of time series in forestry. The editors express their sincere appreciations to the many persons who have contributed to the realisation of the present book: participants in the research programme and the workshop, in particular Professors S0ren Johansen (KU) and Peter Berck (UCB); authors outside the programme/workshop; reviewers of the papers not previously published, in particuler Associate Professors Niels Haldrup (Aarhus University) and Henrik Hansen (KVL); and finally Mrs Mette Riis and Lizzie Rohde who did the tedious work of giving the papers a uniform style. Copenhagen, October 1998.

Texte du rabat

This volume comprises fifteen papers exploring the consequences of applying modern time-series methods, particularly co-integrated time-series methods, for the analysis of forest economics problems. The methods represent the forefront of econometrics in this area, and the volume is the first of its kind. An introductory paper explains the econometrics of unit-root processes. Much of what follows in the other papers depends upon only a few of the ideas presented in the introduction. The volume includes tests of, e.g., the Law of One Price, land valuation models, demand and supply models, Granger-causality, and forecast models. The reader will learn a great deal about forest economies, particularly in Northern Europe, and about the practical use of modern time-series methods. The methods presented are applicable to other fields of economics. The volume is aimed at researchers in applied economics and as a supplement to (advanced) theoretical textbooks, mainly in Natural Resource Economics.

Contenu
Introducing Unit Roots and Cointegration.- I International Price Relations and Exchange Rates.- Spatial Integration in the Nordic Timber Markets: Long-Run Equilibria and Short-Run Dynamics.- Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Finnish Sawnwood Exports to The United Kingdom.- The Law of One Price in United Kingdom Soft Sawnwood Imports A Cointegration Approach.- Internationalisation of Roundwood Markets the Case of Denmark.- II Demand and Supply Models.- Modelling the Danish Demand for Roundwood Imports a Cointegration and Common Trends Analysis.- Quarterly Model of the Finnish Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets A Cointegration Analysis.- III Causality, Forecasting, and Expectations.- Estimation in a Long-Run, Short-Run Model.- Do Exports Stimulate Growth? Evidence from International Woodpulp Data.- Forecasting Danish Timber Prices with an Error Correction Model.- Forecasting International Pulp Prices with Producer Inventories.- IV Capital Asset Evaluation.- Testing a Present Value Model of Forest Land.- Exploring Sources of Systematic Risk in Danish Forest Asset Returns.- V Management Implications of Time Series Properties.- The Behaviour of Timber Rents in Sweden, 19091990.- Optimal Harvesting Policies with Stationary and Non-Stationary Prices: An Option Value Approach.- List of Authors.