To date, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects of global warming remain elusive. In Global Warming - Myth or Reality? . Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction and lays out the scientific cause of the sizable sceptical scientific community that challenges the accepted wisdom.

The book begins with a review of the dire predictions for climate trends, followed by a discussion of the main conclusions of the three reports issued by the Intergovernmentall Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It then reviews the predictions made at the time about global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, whilst highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media.

Lreoux takes a hard and dispassionate look at the reality of the greenhouse effect, the "evidence" from climate models, and the limitations of those models. He then postulates alternative causes of climate change and analyses the trends for global temperatures, rainfall patterns, dynmaics of weather and sea level. He argues that the case for global warming is based on climatology which, with its insufficiencies in the understanding and explanation of weather phenomena do not support this prediction. Leroux highlights a number of priorities that climatologists could consider in order to understand the processes of climate change, integrate them into deterministic climate models, and predict accurately changes of climate of the near future. The most urgent priority for climatology, the author believes , is to leave the IPCC in order that the discipline remains neutral and returns to the pursuit of its proper ends.

Résumé

In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. In Global Warming: Myth or Reality? Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning with a review of the dire hypotheses for climate trends, the author describes the history of the 1998 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many subsequent conferences. He discusses the main conclusions of the three IPCC reports and the predicted impact on global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, while highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media. After taking a hard look at the reality of the greenhouse effect, the 'evidence' from climate models, and the models' limitations, Leroux postulates alternate causes of climate change and analyzes the trends for global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level. He poses the 'heretical' question if warming may be considered a benefit in some regions. Finally Leroux suggests a number of priorities for climatologists to better understand processes of climate change, to integrate them into climate models, and to predict accurately future changes in climate. This timely and controversial book lays out the scientific case of the sizable skeptical scientific community who challenge the accepted wisdom.

Contenu
The subject, the players, and the principle basis.- History of the notion of global warming.- Conclusions of the IPCC (Working Group I).- Science, media, politics....- Greenhouse effect water effect.- Causes of climate change.- Models and climate.- The general circulation of the atmosphere.- The lessons of the observation of real facts.- The observational facts: Past climates.- The observational facts: Present temperatures.- The observational facts: Weather, rainfall, and drought.- The observational facts: Climate and aerological units.- The North Atlantic aerological unit.- The North Pacific aerological unit.- The lessons of the observation of real facts in the aerological units: Conclusion.- The observational facts: Sea level and circulation.- General conclusion.