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Extended models, methods, and applications in power system
risk assessment
Risk Assessment of Power Systems: Models, Methods, and
Applications, Second Edition fills the gap between risk theory
and real-world application. Author Wenyuan Li is a leading
authority on power system risk and has more than twenty-five years
of experience in risk evaluation. This book offers real-world
examples to help readers learn to evaluate power system risk during
planning, design, operations, and maintenance activities.
Some of the new additions in the Second Edition
include:
New research and applied achievements in power system risk
assessment
A discussion of correlation models in risk evaluation
How to apply risk assessment to renewable energy sources and
smart grids
Asset management based on condition monitoring and risk
evaluation
Voltage instability risk assessment and its application to
system planning
The book includes theoretical methods and actual industrial
applications. It offers an extensive discussion of component and
system models, applied methods, and practical examples, allowing
readers to effectively use the basic concepts to conduct risk
assessments for power systems in the real world. With every
original chapter updated, two new sections added, and five entirely
new chapters included to cover new trends, Risk Assessment of
Power Systems is an essential reference.
Auteur
DR. WENYUAN LI, PhD, is recognized as one of the leading
authorities on risk assessment of power systems and has been active
in power system risk and reliability evaluation for more than
twenty-five years. He is a full professor with Chongqing
University, China, and a principal engineer at BC Hydro, Canada. He
is a fellow of the Canadian Academy of Engineering, the Engineering
Institute of Canada, and the IEEE, and received ten international
awards due to his significant contributions in the power system
risk assessment field.
Résumé
Extended models, methods, and applications in power system risk assessment
Risk Assessment of Power Systems: Models, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition fills the gap between risk theory and real-world application. Author Wenyuan Li is a leading authority on power system risk and has more than twenty-five years of experience in risk evaluation. This book offers real-world examples to help readers learn to evaluate power system risk during planning, design, operations, and maintenance activities.
Some of the new additions in the Second Edition include:
Contenu
Preface xix
Preface to the First Edition xxi
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Risk in Power Systems 1
1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment 4
1.2.1 System Risk Evaluation 4
1.2.2 Data in Risk Evaluation 6
1.2.3 Unit Interruption Cost 7
1.3 Outline of the Book 9
2 Outage Models of System Components 15
2.1 Introduction 15
2.2 Models of Independent Outages 16
2.2.1 Repairable Forced Failure 17
2.2.2 Aging Failure 18
2.2.3 Nonrepairable Chance Failure 24
2.2.4 Planned Outage 24
2.2.5 Semiforced Outage 27
2.2.6 Partial Failure Mode 28
2.2.7 Multiple Failure Mode 30
2.3 Models of Dependent Outages 31
2.3.1 Common-Cause Outage 31
2.3.2 Component-Group Outage 36
2.3.3 Station-Originated Outage 37
2.3.4 Cascading Outage 39
2.3.5 Environment-Dependent Failure 40
2.4 Conclusions 42
3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models 45
3.1 Introduction 45
3.2 Point Estimation on Mean and Variance of Failure Data 46
3.2.1 Sample Mean 46
3.2.2 Sample Variance 48
3.3 Interval Estimation on Mean and Variance of Failure Data 49
3.3.1 General Concept of Confidence Interval 49
3.3.2 Confidence Interval of Mean 50
3.3.3 Confidence Interval of Variance 53
3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components 54
3.4.1 Point Estimation 54
3.4.2 Interval Estimation 55
3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution 56
3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and its Test 57
3.6.1 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data 58
3.6.2 Test of Experimental Distribution 59
3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models 60
3.7.1 Mean Life and its Standard Deviation in the Normal Model 61
3.7.2 Shape and Scale Parameters in the Weibull Model 63
3.7.3 Example 66
3.8 Conclusions 70
4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods 73
4.1 Introduction 73
4.2 Methods for Simple Systems 74
4.2.1 Probability Convolution 74
4.2.2 Series and Parallel Networks 75
4.2.3 Minimum Cutsets 78
4.2.4 Markov Equations 79
4.2.5 Frequency-Duration Approaches 81
4.3 Methods for Complex Systems 84
4.3.1 State Enumeration 84
4.3.2 Nonsequential Monte Carlo Simulation 87
4.3.3 Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation 89
4.4 Correlation Models in Risk Evaluation 91
4.4.1 Correlation Measures 92
4.4.2 Correlation Matrix Methods 93
4.4.3 Copula Functions 95
4.5 Conclusions 102
5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems 105
5.1 Introduction 105
5.2 Techniques Used in Generation-Demand Systems 106
5.2.1 Convolution Technique 106
5.2.2 State Sampling Method 110
5.2.3 State Duration Sampling Method 112
5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems 114
5.3.1 Analytical Technique 114
5.3.2 State Duration Sampling Method 117
5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations 118
5.4.1 Failure Modes and Modeling 119
5.4.2 Connectivity Identification 121
5.4.3 Stratified State Enumeration Method 123
5.4.4 State Duration Sampling Method 127
5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems 129
5.5.1 Basic Procedure 130
5.5.2 Component Failure Models 131
5.5.3 Load Curve Models 131
5.5.4 Contingency Analysis 133
5.5.5 Optimization Models for Load Curtailments 135
5.5.6 State Enumeration Method 138
5.5.7 State Sampling Method 139
5.6 Conclusions 141 **6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning 143<...