The Commitments of Traders Bible

Regardless of your trading methods, and no matter what markets you're involved in, there is a Commitments of Traders (COT) report that you should be reviewing every week. Nobody understands this better than Stephen Briese, an industry-leading expert on COT data. And now, with The Commitments of Traders Bible, Briese reveals how to use the predictive power of COT data--and accurately interpret it--in order to analyze market movements and achieve investment success.

Auteur

Stephen Briese is the leading expert on analyzing the Commitments of Traders data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Briese has published a newsletter, Bullish Review, since 1988 and has written articles for several industry publications and spoken at a variety of industry trading and technical analysis conferences.

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Praise for The Commitments of Traders Bible

"This book provides an important understanding of how the crowd operates in the markets. Steve Briese has given us a complete explanation of the metrics that are required to actually use contrary opinion methods."
—Woody Dorsey, President, Market Semiotics, and author of Behavioral Trading

"Steve Briese is the master of the COT and here gives us the benefit of many years of experience in using the Commitments of Traders reports in his trading. Steve guides us, with wit and humor, through how the COT is calculated, why it is valuable, and, more importantly—how to use it to uncover an edge in your trading and investing. You will profit from this book."
—Charlie Wright, Chairman, Fall River Capital, LLC

"I have followed Steve Briese's analysis for two decades in trading the commodities markets. His methods and conclusions from COT data are fact based and often properly contrarian. In today's world, where commodity hedge funds have become even larger players, Steve Briese's work assumes an even higher importance level for commodity market participants, individual and professional alike."
—Brent R. Harris, Head of PIMCO Real Return and Commodities Desk; Chairman, PIMCO Funds

Contenu
List Of Illustrations. List Of Tables.

Preface.

Acknowledgments.

Part One. Introduction.

Chapter 1. The COT Assorted History.

The Grain Futures Administration.

The Commodity Exchange Authority.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Modern COT Data.

COT Futures & Options Combined Report.

COT-Supplemental Commodity Index Trader Report.

Chapter 2. COT Reports Counting 1, 2, 3

The Long Form.

The Short Form.

COTSupplemental Commodity Index Report.

Chapter 3. Player Introductions.

Sizing Them Up.

The Reporting System.

Commercial Hedgers.

Large Speculators.

Commodity Index Traders.

Small Traders.

Chapter 4. Fading Small Speculators And Other Half-Baked Schemes.

TIP: Always Follow Commercials.

TIP: Net Long Is Bullish; Net Short Bearish.

TIP: Always Fade The Small Speculator.

TIP: It Is Only Logical To Compare Hedging To The Seasonal Average.

TIP: The COT Is Old News By The Time It Is Released.

Chapter 5. Net Positions.

Open Interest.

Constructing Net Positions Charts.

Large Speculator Patterns.

Commercial Patterns.

Small Trader Patterns.

Commodity Index Traders.

Chapter 6. The COT Index.

Calculating The COT Index.

Alternative Look-Back Periods.

The COT Index As The Great Normalizer.

Interpreting The COT Index.

Heal Thyself.

Chapter 7. COT Movement Index.

Commercial Movement Index.

40-Point COT Surge Rules (Commercials).

Combining The Indexes.

Fund Movement Index.

Chapter 8. View From The Gallery.

Keynes Theory Of Normal Backwardation.

Can Speculators Forecast Prices (Houthakker, 1957)?

Returns To Speculators And The Theory Of Normal Backwardation (Chang, E, 1985).

Returns To Individual Traders Of Futures: Aggregate Results (Hartzmark 1987).

Luck Versus Forecast Ability: Determinants Of Trader Performance In Futures Markets (Hartzmark 1991).

The Returns And Forecasting Ability Of Large Traders In The Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market (Leuthold, Garcia, And Lu. 1994).

Hedging Pressure Effects In Futures Markets (De Roon, Nijman, And Veld 2000).

Hedging Demand And Foreign Exchange Risk Premia (Tien 2001).

Investor Sentiment And Return Predictability In Agricultural Futures Markets (Wang 2001).

The Behavior And Performance Of Major Types Of Futures Traders. (Wang 2003)

Exchange Rate Changes And Net Positions Of Speculators In The Futures Market (Klitgaard And Weir 2004).

The Profitability Of Speculators In Currency Futures Markets And Manners 2004).

Summary.

Chapter 9. View From The Pits.

The Study Data.

The Trading Rules.

Trading Rules Test Results.

Trading System Considerations.

Chapter 10. Chart Pattern Validation.

A Brief Charting Primer.

Bottom Formations.

Top Formations.

Continuation Patterns.

Chapter 11. Getting Technical.

COTStochastics.

COT MACDHistogram.

COTRSI.

Standard Deviation (Bollinger) Bands.

Conclusions.

Part Two. Breaking Down The COT Report.

Chapter 12. Crossing Currencies.

Commercials.

U.S. Dollar Index.

Charts And Correlation Tables.

Chapter 13. Taking Stock.

The COT Beats The Averages.

Stock Index Charts And Correlation Tables.

Chapter 14. Test Of Metal. Golden Opportunities.</...