Forecasting the exchange rate of currencies. A panel data approach

Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, , course: International Financial Management, language: English, abstract: The exchange rate on a daily basis is an indispensable factor in the foreign exchange market as well as in international trade. Many traders make a profit based on the pip in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, inflation and deflation of a currency against another currency is the root of making a profit in the foreign exchange market. Even in the international trade many individual traders and multi-national corporations always carefully observes the fluctuation of the exchange rate in order to determine the exchange rate efficiently and accurately. Because the more accurate the forecasted exchange rate is, the higher the chance becomes to make a profit only by investing a little amount of money in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate has also significant impact on the export, import, foreign direct investment etc. This paper pursues the goal to explain how an individual or an organization can formulate future exchange rate of any currency in an efficient and time effective way. To meet this demand, this paper utilizes the help of panel data and a regression model. As a sample, this paper considers USD/BDT for a forecast. It must be noted that, with different panel data of different currencies, the method will remain same if anyone wants to forecast exchange rates of different currencies.

Auteur

I am Sajjad Hossine Sharif. I have been associated with research since 2013. I completed my Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA) in finance from Independent University, Bangladesh which is one of the most reputed universities in the South Asia. I completed my Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA) in 2016 with the achievement of Vice chancellor honor award, Dean honor award, Dean merit award and Magna Cum Laude. I am currently enrolling Master of Business Administration (MBA) in finance at Dhaka University which is a very prominent university not only in Bangladesh but also in South Asia. I completed 3 diploma degrees to intensify my knowledge in the field of finance and accounting which are- Diploma in Risk Management, Diploma in Accounting - Advanced Controls and Transactions and Diploma in Accounting Core Practice from Alison. I achieved Six Sigma White belt certification form Aveta Business Institute and Six Sigma Yellow belt certification from VMEdu. I have already conducted three researches. My researches are mainly based on economics and finance related topics. In my researches I always try to express the discussion as easily as possible for the new readers. I am recently working on a case study which is based on the life style of the rural people of the northern part of Bangladesh. Moreover, I am also associated with a new research which is significantly related with ICT sector of Europe.