Sources and Methods of Historical Demography

Sources and Methods of Historical Demography covers the fundamental sources, methods, and approaches to explanatory modeling for describing, analyzing, and understanding demographic features of past societies. The book discusses the intellectual ancestry of historical demographic research, beginning in the 17th century; as well as the logic of basic techniques for reconstructing and analyzing information from fundamental source materials. The text also describes the full range of disciplines that have made major contributions to historical demography, and examples of empirical research. The book concludes by arguing the case for conducting historical demographic research with a broad, interdisciplinary ideal in mind. Historians and sociologists will find the book invaluable.

Contenu

Preface
Acknowledgments
I. Introduction

1. A Genealogy of Historical Demography
   The Methodologists
   Political Arithmetic
   The Theorists
   References
   II. Fundamental Source Materials
2. Sources of Prehistoric Demography
   Censusing Prehistoric Populations from Material Remains
   The Study of Prehistoric Vital Rates: Paleodemography
   Mortality Patterns Among Prehistoric Populations
   Population Growth in Prehistory
   Ethnographic Evidence of Population Control in Prehistory
   References
3. Parish Registers and Civil Registration Records
   The Development of Parish Registers
   The Contents of Parish Register Records on Individuals
   Historical Conditions Affecting the Quality of Parish Register Information
   Assessing the Quality of Small Sets of Vital Registration Records
   Assessing the Quality Of Large Sets of Vital Event Records
   Estimating and Correcting for the Underregistration of Vital Events
   Vital Registration Records and Historical Demography
   References
4. Enumerations and Censuses
   Enumerations in the Past
   Hearths and Households in Early Enumerations
   The Use of "One-Time" Enumerations
   An Example of a Regular Series of Early Enumeration Data: The Stati D'anime
   Assessing the Accuracy of Enumeration Data
   The Quality of Regular Series of Modern Censuses
   The Definition and Boundaries of Census Units
   Relationships Among Individuals Within Households
   Occupational Data from Census Records and the Analysis of Social Structure
   Census Data and the Study of Fertility
   References
5. Genealogies and Population Registers
   Types of Genealogies
   Some General Problems of Genealogical Sources
   Assessing the Quality of Genealogical Sources
   Dealing With Partial or Incomplete Data on Individuals
   The Significance of the Demographic Experience of Genealogical Populations
   Population Registers
   References
6. Organizational and Institutional Records
   Marriage Contracts
   Wills
   The Historical Demography of Institutional Populations
   References
   III. Methods of Population Reconstruction and Analysis of Historical Sources
7. Record Linkage and the Study of Historical Communities as Relational Systems 167
   Important Concepts for the Systems Theorist
   Regulation in Historical Demographic Systems
   Network Analysis
   References
8. Family Reconstitution and Household Structure Analysis
   The Logic of Automatic Family Reconstitution
   Calculating Demographic Rates from Family Reconstitution Data
   The Structure of Coresident Domestic Groups
   Dynamic Studies of Household Structure and Family Life Cycles
   References
9. Sampling in Historical Research
   Simple Random, Systematic, and Cluster Sampling
   Stratified and Multistage Sampling
   Sample Size
   References
10. Lexis Diagrams and Formal Demographic Indexes
    Lexis Diagrams
    Cohort and Period Indexes: Methodological Problems
    The Probability of First Marriages
    Fertility Rates in Marriage Cohorts
    Probabilities of Dying: The Life Table
    Interpreting Cohort Tables: Methodological Problems
    Migration and Multiregional Analysis
    Computer Programs
    References
11. Factor Analysis
    An Overview
    Stages in Factor Analyzing Historical Demographic Data
    Exploratory Factor Analysis
    Confirmatory Factor Analysis
    Comparison of Factor Structures Over Time
    Indeterminacy in Factor Analytical Solutions
    References
12. Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling and Cluster Analysis
    Creating Proximity Measures
    From Nonmetric to Metric Information
    The Dimensionality of mds Spaces
    Cluster Patterns in Multidimensional Scaling Spaces
    References
13. Regression and Time Series Modeling
    Regression Analysis: Preliminary Considerations
    Common Problems Encountered In Regression Analysis
    Regression with Nominal Variables
    Time Series: Preliminary Considerations
    Autocorrelation Analysis
    Trends
    Randomness in Time Series
    Moving Averages
    The Univariate Box-Jenkins Approach to Modeling a Time Series
    The Multivariate Box-Jenkins Approach to Modeling a Time Series
    Intervention Hypothesis Testing
    References
14. Log-Linear Modeling
    The Organization of Categorical Data
    The Odds Ratio
    Log-Linear Models
    Illustrative Example
    References
    
    15. Computer Simulation of Historical Processes
        Developing a Model to Simulate
        Positive and Negative Feedback Structures
        Choosing a Simulation Language
        Causal Models in Dynamo Format
        Simulating Ramdomness in Causal Models
        References
        IV. Causal Model Building and Hypothesis Testing: Major Themes
15. Theory Construction And The Nature of Scientific Explanation
    The Nature of Scientific Hypotheses
    Explanation Sketches
    Models of Scientific Explanation
    Explanation Closure
    Explanation in Historical Research
    Causal Inferences from Historical Statistics
    Nonexperimental Causal Inference and Structural Models
    Problems in Drawing Valid Causal Inferences in Historical Demography
    Problems of Statistical Conclusion Validity
    Problems of Internal Validity
    The Problem of Construct Validity
    The Problem of External Validity
    Research Designs with Historical Data
    Quasi-Experimental Research Designs With Nonequivalent Groups
    References
16. Population Genetics Models
    The Historical Perspective of Population Genetics
    Genetic Structure
    Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium
    Kinship and Identity Coefficients
    Genetic Drift in Small Populations
    Selection
    Research Examples
    References
17. Biometrie Models
    A General Analytical Framework
    Birth Intervals and the Duration of the Nonsusceptible Period
    Natural Fertility
    The Relationships Between Changes in Fertility and Mortality
    References
18. Evolutionary-Ecological Models
    Evolutionary Theory
    Sociobiological Theory
    Ecological Theory
    The Concept of Stability
    Randomness in Ecological Settings
    Synthesizing Evolutionary and Ecological Theories
    Research Examples
    References
19. Socioeconomic Models
    A Framework for Demographic Model Building Within Historical
    Socioeconomic Contexts
    The Cultural Materialist Reformulation of Marx
    Structured Social Inequality
    Historical Demographic Perspectives on Social Mobility and Inequality
    Socioeconomic Models with Demographic Data
    References
    V. Conclusion
20. Historical Demography and "Total History"
    Recommended Readings
    Author Index
    Subject Index