Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference 'textbook' in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world's leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Contenu

Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Context.- Seasonal Forecasts in Decision Making.- The Production of Seasonal Climate Forecasts.- Overview of Seasonal Forecasting.- Ocean-Atmosphere Basis for Seasonal Climate Forecasting.- Getting the Coupled Model Ready at the Starting Blocks.- Modelling the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Coupled System.- Statistical Modelling.- Calibration and Assessment of Seasonal Climate Forecasts.- From Dynamical Model Predictions to Seasonal Climate Forecasts.- An Introduction to Probability Forecasting.- How Do We Know Whether Seasonal Climate Forecasts are Any Good?.- Developing Successful Application Strategies.- Communicating Seasonal Forecasts.- Building National and Specialised Climate Services.- Water, Health and Early Warnings.- The Future of Seasonal Climate Forecasting.- A Way Forward for Seasonal Climate Services.