Forecasting Economic Time Series

This title provides an extended formal analysis of economic forecasting co-authored by one of the world's leading econometricians.

Résumé
David Hendry is one of the world's leading econometricians, and in this major new work he and Michael Clements provide an extended formal analysis of economic forecasting with econometric models, building in many of the features of the real world often overlooked in traditional analyses of forecasting.

Contenu

1. An introduction to economic forecasting; 2. First principles; 3. Evaluating forecast accuracy; 4. Forecasting in univariate processes; 5. Monte Carlo techniques; 6. Forecasting in co-intergrated systems; 7. Forecasting with large-scale macro-econometric models; 8. A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts; 9. Forecasting using leading indicators; 10. Combining forecasts; 11. Multi-step estimation; 12. Parsimony; 13. Testing forecast accuracy; 14. Postscript.