Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise

Winston Churchill, whose output as a writer was so prodigious that one might reasonably wonder whether he was paid by the page, was him self put off by long works. As prime minister of Great Britain, he once pushed away a report from a junior minister, observing, "This paper, by its very length, defends itself against the risk of being read." No doubt some laymen will glance at the study that follows and be deterred from further consideration by the fact that the study is a scien tific one. If that is a hurdle for you, I hope you will join me in getting over it, because, if you do, you will find that the authors have quite a story to tell. That story is about change-the possibility that the climatic patterns of the world are in a transition to warmer weather that could lead to a rise in the sea level. You may not have thought much about the sea level previously; it was something we took for granted. But since we have taken it as a given for so long, the adjustments we may have to make will be profound. When you stop to think about all the areas of our lives that could be affected by climatic change, you will be amazed: we have planned our cities, developed our manufacturing techniques, and chosen our en vironmental protection strategies on the assumption of a stable seaJevel.

Contenu
1: An Overview of the Causes and Effects of Sea Level Rise.- Introduction, 1 Sea Level, Climate, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 6 Sea Level Rise Scenarios, 12 The Effects of Sea Level Rise and Possible Responses, 19 Responses to Sea Level Rise, 23 Methods Used in the Case Studies, 26 Case Study Results, 31 Reactions and Recommendations, 41 Notes, 45 References, 46 Appendix, 52.- 2: Climate Sensitivity to Increasing Greenhouse Gases.- Introduction, 57 Climate Model Calculations of Climate Sensitivity, 60 Empirical Evidence of Climate Sensitivity, 67 Current Trends of Greenhouse Gases and Global Temperature, 74 Summary, 75 Notes, 76 References, 76.- 3: Estimates of Future Sea Level Rise.- Introduction, 79 The Approach Used for Estimating Sea Level Rise, 80 Future Atmospheric Composition, 82 Future Global Temperature, 87 Future Ocean and Glacial Responses to Global Warming, 91 Future Sea Level Rise, 96 Reducing Uncertainties, 96 Notes, 101 References, 101.- 4: The Physical Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Area of Charleston, South Carolina.- Introduction, 105 Charleston Case Study Area, 106 Modeling Effects of Sea Level Rise, 111 Mapping Methods, 115 Historical Shoreline Trends, 118 Storm Surge Analyses, 126 Groundwater Analyses, 127 Results and Discussion, 130 Groundwater Impacts, 139 Analysis of Methodology, 140 References, 141 Appendix, 144.- 5: Coastal Geomorphic Responses to Sea Level Rise: Galveston Bay, Texas.- Introduction, 151 Shoreline Response, 154 Storm Surge, 165 Conclusions and Recommendations, 175 Notes, 177 References, 177.- 6: Control of Erosion, Inundation and Salinity Intrusion Caused by Sea Level Rise.- Introduction, 179 Control of Erosion, Inundation, and Storm Surge, 180 Saltwater Intrusion, 199 Summary, 210 Notes, 212 References, 212 Bibliography, 214.- 7: Economic Analysis of Sea Level Rise: Methods and Results.- Introduction, 215 Analytic Methods, 216 Results, 232 Summary, 247 Notes, 248.- 8: Planning for Sea Level Rise before and after a Coastal Disaster.- Introduction, 253 The Changing Environment of Coastal Activities, 254 The Individual's Decision on Whether to Rebuild after a Storm: Sullivans Island, 255 Decisions Facing the Community, 260 Recommendations, 263 Notes, 267 References, 268.- 9: Implications of Sea Level Rise for Hazardous Waste Sites in Coastal Floodplains.- Introduction, 271 Background, 272 Hazardous Waste Facilities in Floodplains, 274 General Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Hazardous Waste Sites, 280 Impacts on Specific Types of Hazardous Waste Sites, 281 Effects of Sea Level Rise on Hazardous Waste Sites in the Charleston and Galveston Study Areas, 283 Conclusions, 292 Notes, 293 References, 294.- 10: Independent Reviews.- Introduction, 295 Comments of Sherwood Gagliano, 296 Comments of Edward J. Schmeltz, 300 Comments of Jeffrey R. Benoit, 305 Comments of Thomas H. Magness III, 307 Comments of Charles E. Fraser, 311 Comments of Lee Koppleman, 313.- About the Contributors.