A Century of Crisis and Conflict in the International System

This book is designed to present a fully developed theory of international crisis and conflict, along with substantial evidence of these two closely related phenomena. The book begins with a discussion of these topics at a theoretical level, defining and elaborating on core concepts: international crisis, interstate conflict, severity, and impact. This is followed by a discussion of the international system, along with two significant illustrations, the Berlin Blockade crisis (1948) and the India-Pakistan crisis over Kashmir (1965-66). The book then presents a unified model of crisis, focusing on the four phases of an international crisis, which incorporate the four periods of foreign policy crises for individual states. Findings from thirteen conflicts representing six regional clusters are then analyzed, concluding with a set of hypotheses and evidence on conflict onset, persistence, and resolution.

Presents theoretical findings and reflections on extensive archive of 450 case studies on international crises

Addresses critical questions around the causes, escalation, and resolution of international crises to explore the crisis-conflict-war linkage

Offers the first book-length exposition of the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project

Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Auteur
Michael Brecher is the R.B. Angus Professor of Political Science at McGill University, Canada.

Contenu

1. Multiple Paths to Knowledge
   A. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS BEHAVIOR (ICB) PROJECT: OVERVIEWOrigins Colleagues, Coders and Advisers Rationale and Methods Objectives Formative Publications (1977-1980) Case Studies Qualitative Analysis Data Sets and Aggregate Analysis
   B. MILLENNIAL REFLECTIONS ON CRISIS AND CONFLICTAdvocates and CriticsRationaleDiversity in International Studies
   C. INTELLECTUAL ODYSSEY: PHASES, THEMES, CONCEPTS Phases and Themes Political Leadership and Charisma (Odyssey I) Dynamics of the Arab/Israel Conflict (Odyssey II) Interstate Crises and Conflicts (Odyssey III) Concepts Subordinate State System Foreign Policy System International System Foreign Policy Crisis International Crisis Unified Model of Crisis Crisis Severity Crisis Impact Protracted Conflict Polycentrism
   
   2. Theory I: Core Concepts and Systems
      A. CORE CONCEPTSInternational Crisis and Protracted ConflictSeverity and Impact
      B. SYSTEM AND CRISISInternational SystemSystemic CrisisBerlin Blockade Crisis 1948-49India/Pakistan Crisis over Kashmir 1965-66Severity and Impact Unit-System Linkages
   3. Theory II: Unified Model of Crisis (UMC) and the ICB Framework
      A. UNIFIED MODEL OF CRISISConceptual Guidelines: Overview Onset Phase--Pre-Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Onset; Crisis Onset Model Escalation Phase--Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Escalation De-Escalation Phase--End Crisis Period: Hypotheses on De-EscalationImpact Phase--Post-Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Impact
      B. CHANGES IN ICB STRUCTURERecent Additions to Crisis-Conflict ProjectOverview of Findings
   4. General Findings: Foreign Policy Crises
      Dataset: 29 CasesContext Dimensions Methodology in Case Studies: An Unresolved DebateGeneral Findings on Attributes of Foreign Policy Crises: Trigger Triggering Entity Duration Decisions Decision-Makers Attitudinal Prism Values Findings on Coping: Crisis Management Information Processing Consultation Decisional Forum Search for, and Consideration of, AlternativesFindings on System Structures Multipolarity Bipolarity Bipolycentrism UnipolycentrismCoping with Foreign Policy Crises: New Evidence Confronts Conventional Wisdom Hypotheses on Effects of Time and Impact of Stress Cognitive Dimension Decisional Dimension Shared Response to Stress Explanation Commonality in Coping with High Stress Stress-Behavior Relationship: Evidence from 29 Foreign Policy Crises Test of Neo-Realism: Evidence from 29 Foreign Policy Crises
   5. Theory III: Interstate Conflicts
      Conflict Resolution Model Basic Causes of Conflict Resolution Collective Exhaustion Changes in Balance of Capability Domestic Pressures for Conflict Resolution External Pressures for Conflict Resolution Reduction in Discordant Objectives Reduction in Conflict-Sustaining ActsPerceptual CalculusCatalystHypotheses on Conflict Resolution
   6. Select Case Study Findings on Interstate Conflict: Africa and Americas
      A. AFRICAChad/Libya Ethiopia/SomaliaWestern Sahara
      B. AMERICASCosta Rica/Nicaragua
   7. Select Case Study Findings on Interstate Conflict: Asia
      Afghanistan/Pakistan China/Vietnam
   8. Select Case Study Findings on Interstate Conflict: Europe and the Middle East
      A. EUROPEFinland/Russia-USSRPoland/Russia-USSR
      B. MIDDLE EAST Iran/Iraq
   9. Select Case Study Findings on Interstate Conflict: Inter-Region
      Georgia/Russia-USSRInter-Korea North Vietnam/U.S. Taiwan Strait
   10. What Have We Learned about Interstate Conflict?
       Hypotheses and Evidence on Conflict Onset Hypotheses and Evidence on Conflict Persistence Hypotheses and Evidence on Conflict Resolution
2. Critique of International Studies
   A. SHORTCOMINGSIntolerance of Competing Paradigms, Models, Methods, Findings Closed-Mind MentalityTendency to Research Fashions Retreat from Science in IR, IS, WPLow Value placed on Cumulation of KnowledgeB. FLAWED DICHOTOMIESTheory vs. History as Approaches to KnowledgeDeductive vs. Inductive Paths to Theory Horizontal (breadth) vs. Vertical (depth) Focus of Inquiry Aggregate Data vs. Case Study Methods of Analysis Large 'N' vs. Small 'N' clusters of data System vs. Actor as the optimal Level of Analysis Rational Calculus vs. Psychological Constraints on choice and the related divide (Reality vs. Perceptions as key to explain state behavior) Neo-Realism vs. Neo-Institutionalism or Constructivism as the correct Paradigm for the Study of World Politics
   C. FINAL WORDS