A Pocket Guide to Risk Mathematics

Informationen zum Autor Matthew Leitch (Epsom, UK) is an author on a mission to make risk control easier, more natural, and much more valuable. His insightful, readable books are at the leading edge of thinking and practice in internal control and risk management. He frequently carries out original research on topical questions, such as how our use of words affects the way we think about uncertainty, and what expertise auditors need. He is a qualified chartered accountant and holds a BSc in psychology from University College London. He is author of Intelligent Internal Control and Risk Management , and runs the website, www.internalcontrolsdesign.co.uk. He speaks at numerous risk and audit conferences for organizations including the IIA and IIR. Klappentext This uniquely accessible, breakthrough book lets auditors grasp the thinking behind the mathematical approach to risk without doing the mathematics.Risk control expert and former Big 4 auditor, Matthew Leitch, takes the reader gently but quickly through the key concepts, explaining mistakes organizations often make and how auditors can find them.Spend a few minutes every day reading this conveniently pocket sized book and you will soon transform your understanding of this highly topical area and be in demand for interesting reviews with risk at their heart."I was really excited by this book - and I am not a mathematician. With my basic understanding of business statistics and business risk management I was able to follow the arguments easily and pick up the jargon of a discipline akin to my own but not my own."--Dr Sarah Blackburn, President at the Institute of Internal Auditors - UK and Ireland Zusammenfassung This uniquely accessible, breakthrough book lets auditors grasp the thinking behind the mathematical approach to risk without doing the mathematics.Risk control expert and former Big 4 auditor, Matthew Leitch, takes the reader gently but quickly through the key concepts, explaining mistakes organizations often make and how auditors can find them.Spend a few minutes every day reading this conveniently pocket sized book and you will soon transform your understanding of this highly topical area and be in demand for interesting reviews with risk at their heart."I was really excited by this book - and I am not a mathematician. With my basic understanding of business statistics and business risk management I was able to follow the arguments easily and pick up the jargon of a discipline akin to my own but not my own."--Dr Sarah Blackburn, President at the Institute of Internal Auditors - UK and Ireland Inhaltsverzeichnis Start here.Good choice!This book.How this book works.The myth of mathematical clarity.The myths of quantification.The auditor's mission.Auditing simple risk assessments.1 Probabilities.2 Probabilistic forecaster.3 Calibration (also known as reliability).4 Resolution.5 Proper score function.6 Audit point: Judging probabilities.7 Probability interpretations.8 Degree of belief.9 Situation (also known as an experiment).10 Long run relative frequency.11 Degree of belief about long run relative frequency.12 Degree of belief about an outcome.13 Audit point: Mismatched interpretations of probability.14 Audit point: Ignoring uncertainty about probabilities.15 Audit point: Not using data to illuminate probabilities.16 Outcome space (also known as sample space, or possibility space).17 Audit point: Unspecified situations.18 Outcomes represented without numbers.19 Outcomes represented with numbers.20 Random variable.21 Event.22 Audit point: Events with unspecified boundaries.23 Audit point: Missing ranges.24 Audit point: Top 10 risk reporting.25 Probability of an outcome.26 Probability of an event.27 Probability measure (also known as probability distribution, probability function, or even probability distribution function).28 ...

Auteur

Matthew Leitch (Epsom, UK) is an author on a mission to make risk control easier, more natural, and much more valuable. His insightful, readable books are at the leading edge of thinking and practice in internal control and risk management. He frequently carries out original research on topical questions, such as how our use of words affects the way we think about uncertainty, and what expertise auditors need. He is a qualified chartered accountant and holds a BSc in psychology from University College London. He is author of Intelligent Internal Control and Risk Management, and runs the website, www.internalcontrolsdesign.co.uk. He speaks at numerous risk and audit conferences for organizations including the IIA and IIR.

Texte du rabat

This uniquely accessible, breakthrough book lets auditors grasp the thinking behind the mathematical approach to risk without doing the mathematics. Risk control expert and former Big 4 auditor, Matthew Leitch, takes the reader gently but quickly through the key concepts, explaining mistakes organizations often make and how auditors can find them. Spend a few minutes every day reading this conveniently pocket sized book and you will soon transform your understanding of this highly topical area and be in demand for interesting reviews with risk at their heart. "I was really excited by this book - and I am not a mathematician. With my basic understanding of business statistics and business risk management I was able to follow the arguments easily and pick up the jargon of a discipline akin to my own but not my own." --Dr Sarah Blackburn, President at the Institute of Internal Auditors - UK and Ireland

Contenu
Start here. Good choice! This book. How this book works. The myth of mathematical clarity. The myths of quantification. The auditor's mission. Auditing simple risk assessments. 1 Probabilities. 2 Probabilistic forecaster. 3 Calibration (also known as reliability). 4 Resolution. 5 Proper score function. 6 Audit point: Judging probabilities. 7 Probability interpretations. 8 Degree of belief. 9 Situation (also known as an experiment). 10 Long run relative frequency. 11 Degree of belief about long run relative frequency. 12 Degree of belief about an outcome. 13 Audit point: Mismatched interpretations of probability. 14 Audit point: Ignoring uncertainty about probabilities. 15 Audit point: Not using data to illuminate probabilities. 16 Outcome space (also known as sample space, or possibility space). 17 Audit point: Unspecified situations. 18 Outcomes represented without numbers. 19 Outcomes represented with numbers. 20 Random variable. 21 Event. 22 Audit point: Events with unspecified boundaries. 23 Audit point: Missing ranges. 24 Audit point: Top 10 risk reporting. 25 Probability of an outcome. 26 Probability of an event. 27 Probability measure (also known as probability distribution, probability function, or even probability distribution function). 28 Conditional probabilities. 29 Discrete random variables. 30 Continuous random variables. 31 Mixed random variables (also known as mixed discrete-continuous random variables). 32 Audit point: Ignoring mixed random variables. 33 Cumulative probability distribution function. 34 Audit point: Ignoring impact spread. 35 Audit point: Confusing money and utility. 36 Probability mass function. 37 Probability density function. 38 Sharpness. 39 Risk. 40 Mean value of a probability distribution (also known as the expected value). 41 Audit point: Excessive focus on expected values. 42 Audit point: Misunderstanding 'expected'. 43 Audit point: Avoiding impossible provisions. 44 Audit point: Probability impact matrix numbers. 45 Variance. 46 Standard deviation. 47 Semi-variance. 48 Downside probability. 49 Lower partial moment. 50 Value at risk (VaR). 51 Audit point: Probability times impact. Some types of probability distribution. 52 Discrete uniform distribution. 53 Zipf distribution. 54 Audit point: Benford's law. 55 Non-parametric distributions. 56 Analytical expression. 57 Closed form (also known as a closed formula or explicit formula). 58 …