Mastering Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect

"Applied econometrics, known to aficionados as 'metrics, is the original data science. 'Metrics encompasses the statistical methods economists use to untangle cause and effect in human affairs. Through accessible discussion and with a dose of kung fu-themed humor, Mastering 'Metrics presents the essential tools of econometric research and demonstrates why econometrics is exciting and useful.The five most valuable econometric methods, or what the authors call the Furious Five--random assignment, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, and differences in differences--are illustrated through well-crafted real-world examples (vetted for awesomeness by Kung Fu Panda's Jade Palace). Does health insurance make you healthier? Randomized experiments provide answers. Are expensive private colleges and selective public high schools better than more pedestrian institutions? Regression analysis and a regression discontinuity design reveal the surprising truth. When private banks teeter, and depositors take their money and run, should central banks step in to save them? Differences-in-differences analysis of a Depression-era banking crisis offers a response. Could arresting O. J. Simpson have saved his ex-wife's life? Instrumental variables methods instruct law enforcement authorities in how best to respond to domestic abuse.Wielding econometric tools with skill and confidence, Mastering 'Metrics uses data and statistics to illuminate the path from cause to effect. Shows why econometricsis important Explains econometric research through humorous and accessible discussion Outlines empirical methods central to modern econometric practice Works through interesting and relevant real-world examples "--

"The writing is lively and engaging, with quotes, anecdotes and jokes scattered throughout. . . . I have become a big fan of this new textbook. . . . In my view, the emphasis on thinking about parameters of interest and identification before discussing technical matters is a huge improvement on traditional teaching approaches. Instructors may have to spend more time preparing lectures and tutorials, but I predict significant benefits in terms of students' learning and appreciation of applied econometrics."---Tue Gørgens, Economic Record

Auteur

Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke

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"Written by true 'masters of 'metrics, ' this book is perfect for those who wish to study this important subject. Using real-world examples and only elementary statistics, Angrist and Pischke convey the central methods of causal inference with clarity and wit."--Hal Varian, chief economist at Google

"With humor and rigor, this book explores key approaches in applied econometrics. The authors present accessible, interesting examples--using data-heavy figures and graphic-style comics--to teach practitioners the intuition and statistical understanding they need to become masters of 'metrics. A must-read for anyone using data to investigate questions of causality!"--Melissa S. Kearney, University of Maryland and the Brookings Institution

"This valuable book connects the dots between mathematical formulas, statistical methods, and real-world policy analysis. Reading it is like overhearing a conversation between two grumpy old men who happen to be economists--and I mean this in the best way possible."--Andrew Gelman, Columbia University

"Modern econometrics is more than just a set of statistical tools--causal inference in the social sciences requires a careful, inquisitive mindset. Mastering 'Metrics is an engaging, fun, and highly accessible guide to the paradigm of causal inference."--David Deming, Harvard University

"Few fields of statistical inquiry have seen faster progress over the last several decades than causal inference. With an engaging, insightful style, Angrist and Pischke catch readers up on five powerful methods in this area. If you seek to make causal inferences, or understand those made by others, you will want to read this book as soon as possible."--Gary King, Harvard University

"Posing several well-chosen empirical questions in social science, Mastering 'Metrics develops methods to provide the answers and applies them to interesting datasets. This book will motivate beginning students to understand econometrics, with an appreciation of its strengths and limits."--Gary Chamberlain, Harvard University

"Focusing on five econometric tools, Mastering 'Metrics presents key econometric concepts. Any field that uses statistical techniques to conduct causal inference will find this book useful."--Melvyn Weeks, University of Cambridge

Contenu
List of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
Introduction xi
1 Randomized Trials 1
1.1 In Sickness and in Health (Insurance) 1
1.2 The Oregon Trail 24
Masters of 'Metrics: From Daniel to R. A. Fisher 30
Appendix: Mastering Inference 33
2 Regression 47
2.1 A Tale of Two Colleges 47
2.2 Make Me a Match, Run Me a Regression 55
2.3 Ceteris Paribus? 68
Masters of 'Metrics: Galton and Yule 79
Appendix: Regression Theory 82
3 Instrumental Variables 98
3.1 The Charter Conundrum 99
3.2 Abuse Busters 115
3.3 The Population Bomb 123
Masters of 'Metrics: The Remarkable Wrights 139
Appendix: IV Theory 142
4 Regression Discontinuity Designs 147
4.1 Birthdays and Funerals 148
4.2 The Elite Illusion 164
Masters of 'Metrics: Donald Campbell 175
5 Differences-in-Differences 178
5.1 A Mississippi Experiment 178
5.2 Drink, Drank, . . . 191
Masters of 'Metrics: John Snow 204
Appendix: Standard Errors for Regression DD 205
6 The Wages of Schooling 209
6.1 Schooling, Experience, and Earnings 209
6.2 Twins Double the Fun 217
6.3 Econometricians Are Known by Their . . . Instruments 223
6.4 Rustling Sheepskin in the Lone Star State 235
Appendix: Bias from Measurement Error 240
Abbreviations and Acronyms 245
Empirical Notes 249
Acknowledgments 269
Index 271