Autorentext

Manfredi Valeriani is a researcher in foreign policy analysis, political risk, wargaming, foresight, and intelligence analysis. He holds a Marie Curie Double PhD from the University of Hamburg and LUISS Guido Carli. Currently, Valeriani works as the Scientific Coordinator at CISS and the creator of the wargame "Global Tensions", a tool used at CISS both in research and education to explore the use of wargaming in International Relations. He is deeply engaged in teaching and research, having designed and delivered courses such as Analytic and Foresight Techniques for International Relations and Political Risk Analysis at LUISS, in addition to courses at the American University of Rome and the University "L'Orientale" in Naples.

Klappentext

Intelligence Analysis for Global Politics bridges the gap between practice and academia by exploring how analytical techniques developed by practitioners in strategic sectors such as intelligence, defense, business, and development, who regularly deal with global uncertainty, can enrich academic analysis in the fields of politics, IR, public policy and business.

What lessons can academics learn from those who decode global politics in their daily practice? Over the years, practitioners have developed effective techniques designed specifically to minimize analytical failures, enhance accuracy, and improve readiness for future scenarios. This book introduces these methodologies and explains the underlying premises behind their creation across four strategic sectors-intelligence, defense, business, and development-demonstrating their relevance and applicability within academic contexts. Chapter one sets the context, including a discussion of recent global trends and core academic concepts. Chapter two examines the intelligence community, highlighting techniques developed from historical analytical failures and emphasizing methods for effectively gathering, managing, analyzing, and communicating information. Chapter three focuses on the defense sector, illustrating how foresight methodologies such as role-playing and wargaming actively simulate scenarios to enhance preparedness and refine scenario-building processes. Chapter four explores business practices, particularly Political Risk Analysis, detailing analytical frameworks and indicators businesses employ to manage global uncertainty. Chapter five discusses development and cooperation actors, emphasizing their specialization in early warning systems and predictive indicators for humanitarian crises. Finally, Chapter six synthesizes these insights, demonstrating how they can be effectively integrated into academic research within IR and politics.

This book will draw great interest to student courses in International Relations, Political Risk Analysis, Intelligence Studies, Security Studies, and Geopolitics. Beyond academia, the book will appeal to practitioners in intelligence agencies, private sector risk consultancies, multinational corporations, and NGOs seeking to learn boarder practical tools to analyze geopolitical risks.

Inhalt

Introduction. An Introduction: what this book wants to do and how it does it Chapter 1. Scientists of complexity: academic theories and concepts for a changing world Chapter 2. Masters of Uncertainty: Insights from the Intelligence Community Chapter 3. Decoding Risk: how businesses navigate the unknown Chapter 4. Predicting the unpredictable: international organizations and foresight Chapter 5. Gaming the Future: how the defense sector simulates global uncertainty Chapter 6. Mastering Analytical Tools: Selection, Application, and Best Practices Conclusion