Investment Confidence and Business Cycles

The aim of this book and a brief description of its con tents appear in chapter I. The purpose of this preface is to express our thanks to various people and organizations. Professor Peter Groenewegen of Sydney University and Dr. Michael Krueger of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst have both been extremely helpful in reading the ma terial and proffering many valuable suggestions. We also wish to thank an anonymous referee for Springer Verlag, for his critical reading and comments. Naturally, we take full responsibility for whatever errors and shortcomings remain. OUr thanks go to Haifa University, particularly the mem bers of the Haifa University Computation Center, for their patience and help in the preparation of the manuscript and production of camera copy. It is a pleasure to acknowledge the assistance of various members of staff of the University of New South Wales, and in particular those at the computer facility within the School of Mathematics. Ian Boyd, Sydney, Austral ia John Blatt, Haifa, Israel. Table of Contents Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION AND BRIEF SUMMARY. . . . . . 1 THE TRADE CYCLE. 7 CHAPTER 11. A BRIEF HISTORICAL SURVEY OF Section A: Why the nineteenth century? • • • • • • • • • 7 Section B: Classification of Cycles. • • •• 10 11 Section C: The Crash of 1873. ••• •• Section D: Asymmetry between Rise and Fall. •• 15 Section E: The Speed of the Crash. 17 · . . . .

Klappentext

The aim of this book and a brief description of its con­ tents appear in chapter I. The purpose of this preface is to express our thanks to various people and organizations. Professor Peter Groenewegen of Sydney University and Dr. Michael Krueger of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst have both been extremely helpful in reading the ma­ terial and proffering many valuable suggestions. We also wish to thank an anonymous referee for Springer Verlag, for his critical reading and comments. Naturally, we take full responsibility for whatever errors and shortcomings remain. OUr thanks go to Haifa University, particularly the mem­ bers of the Haifa University Computation Center, for their patience and help in the preparation of the manuscript and production of camera copy. It is a pleasure to acknowledge the assistance of various members of staff of the University of New South Wales, and in particular those at the computer facility within the School of Mathematics. Ian Boyd, Sydney, Austral ia John Blatt, Haifa, Israel. Table of Contents Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION AND BRIEF SUMMARY. . . . . . 1 THE TRADE CYCLE. 7 CHAPTER 11. A BRIEF HISTORICAL SURVEY OF Section A: Why the nineteenth century? 7 Section B: Classification of Cycles. 10 11 Section C: The Crash of 1873. Section D: Asymmetry between Rise and Fall. 15 Section E: The Speed of the Crash. 17 · . . . .

Inhalt
I. Introduction and Brief Summary.- II. A Brief Historical Survey of the Trade Cycle.- Section A: Why the nineteenth century?.- Section B: Classification of Cycles.- Section C: The Crash of 1873.- Section D: Asymmetry between Rise and Fall.- Section E: The Speed of the Crash.- Section F: Some Stylized Facts.- III: Literature on Confidence.- Section A: John Stuart Mill.- Section B: Walter Bagehot.- Section C: Alfred Marshall.- Section D: Pigou.- Section E: F. Lavington.- Section F: John Maynard Keynes.- Section G: Hyman Minsky.- Section H: Conclusion.- IV: The Dominant Theories.- Section A: Hicks Type Theories.- Section B: Frisch Type Theories.- Section C: Disproof of Frisch type models.- Section D: Goodwin Type Models.- V: A First Look at the New Model.- Section A: The Actors.- Section B: The Plot.- VI: Confidence.- Section A: The Horizon of Uncertainty.- Section B: Increasing and Decreasing Confidence.- Section C: The Money Market.- Section D: Random Effects.- VII: Description of the Model.- Section A: Prices.- Section B: The Desired Investment Fraction.- Section C: Financial Investment and Consumption.- Section D: The Bankruptcy Rate.- Section E: Flow of Funds and Activity of Entrepreneurs.- Section F: Group 3.- Section G: Simulations of the Model.- VIII: The Longer Run.- Section A: General Discussion.- Section B: The Money Supply.- Section C: Effects of an Increase in the Money Supply.- IX: Some General Remarks.- Section A: The Economic Function of the Trade Cycle.- Section B: Exploitation.- Section C: Implications for Economic Theory.- Appendix A: Asymmetry of the Cycle.- Appendix B: Symmetry Theorems for Frisch Type Models.- Appendix C: Specification of the Model.- The Model Equations.- Equations for group 1.- Equations for group 2.- Equation for group 3.- Random Shock Terms.- Conditions and Restrictions.- Numerical Values.- Appendix D: Impossibility of Balanced Growth.- Appendix E: Computer Simulation Method.- Smoothing of the Equations.- Numerical Integration Method.- References.