Systems Approach to Management of Disasters

The main goal of this text is to introduce the systems approach to
disasters management community as an alternative approach that can
provide support for interdisciplinary activities involved in the
management of disasters. The systems approach draws on the
fields of operations research and economics to create skills in
solving complex management problems.

The text is organized into four parts. Part I provides an
introductory discussion of disaster management including an
overview of the main terms used. Part II is devoted to the
introduction of systems theory, mathematical formalization and
classification of methods. The material presented in this section
should be of practical relevance during the process of selecting an
appropriate tool for the solution of a problem. Part III is
technical in nature, providing a simulation approach and a detailed
description of system dynamics simulation. This section details two
areas of application: flood evacuation simulation, and disaster
risk assessment. Part IV ends with a chapter covering steps to
improve disaster management. Finally parts of the book can be used
as a tool for specialized short courses for practitioners. For
example a course on 'System analysis for emergency management
optimization' could be based on Chapters 3, 4 and parts of Chapter

Included in the book is a CD with three computer programs Vensim
PLE, LINPRO, and COMPRO. Vensim PLE (Personal Learning Edition) is
state-of-the-art simulation software used for the implementation of
system dynamics simulation. The other two programs are: LINPRO, a
linear programming optimization tool; and COMPRO, for the
implementation of the multi-objective analysis tool of compromise
programming.

Autorentext
SLOBODAN P. SIMONOVIC is a Professor at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and an Engineering Research Chair of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction at the University of Western Ontario. He teaches courses in civil engineering systems, water resources systems, and disaster management. He actively works for national and international professional organizations and has received a number of awards for excellence in teaching, research, and outreach. He has also been invited to present special courses for practicing water and disaster managers in many countries.

Zusammenfassung
The main goal of this text is to introduce the systems approach to disasters management community as an alternative approach that can provide support for interdisciplinary activities involved in the management of disasters. The systems approach draws on the fields of operations research and economics to create skills in solving complex management problems. The text is organized into four parts. Part I provides an introductory discussion of disaster management including an overview of the main terms used. Part II is devoted to the introduction of systems theory, mathematical formalization and classification of methods. The material presented in this section should be of practical relevance during the process of selecting an appropriate tool for the solution of a problem. Part III is technical in nature, providing a simulation approach and a detailed description of system dynamics simulation. This section details two areas of application: flood evacuation simulation, and disaster risk assessment. Part IV ends with a chapter covering steps to improve disaster management. Finally parts of the book can be used as a tool for specialized short courses for practitioners. For example a course on 'System analysis for emergency management optimization' could be based on Chapters 3, 4 and parts of Chapter 6.

Included in the book is a CD with three computer programs Vensim PLE, LINPRO, and COMPRO. Vensim PLE (Personal Learning Edition) is state-of-the-art simulation software used for the implementation of system dynamics simulation. The other two programs are: LINPRO, a linear programming optimization tool; and COMPRO, for the implementation of the multi-objective analysis tool of compromise programming.

Inhalt

List of Figures and Tables xiii

About the Author xix

Foreword xxi

Preface xxv

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xxxiii

I Management of Disasters 1

1 Introduction 3

1.1 Issues in Management of DisastersPersonal Experience 6

1.1.1 Red River Flooding 6

1.1.2 Red River Flood of the Century, Manitoba, Canada 9

1.2 Tools for Management of DisastersTwo New Paradigms 19

1.2.1 The Complexity Paradigm 21

1.2.2 The Uncertainty Paradigm 24

1.3 Conclusions 26

References 27

Exercises 29

2 Integrated Disaster Management 30

2.1 Definition 30

2.2 Integrated Disaster Management Activities 31

2.2.1 Mitigation 31

2.2.2 Preparedness 39

2.2.3 Response 40

2.2.4 Recovery 40

2.3 Disaster Management in CanadaBrief Overview 41

2.3.1 Emergency Management Act 42

2.3.2 National Disaster Mitigation Strategy 42

2.3.3 Joint Emergency Preparedness Program 43

2.3.4 Emergency Response 44

2.3.5 The Role of Federal Government in Disaster Recovery 45

2.4 Decision Making and Integrated Disaster Management 46

2.4.1 Individual Decision Making 47

2.4.2 Decision Making in Organizations 47

2.4.3 Decision Making in Government 47

2.5 Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management 48

References 49

Exercises 50

II Systems Analysis for Integrated Management of Disasters 51

3 Systems Thinking and Integrated Disaster Management 53

3.1 System Definitions 54

3.1.1 What is a System? 55

3.1.2 Systems Thinking 56

3.1.3 Systems Analysis 59

3.1.4 The Systems Approach 60

3.1.5 Systems Engineering 60

3.1.6 Feedback 61

3.1.7 Mathematical Modeling 66

3.1.8 A Classification of Systems 68

3.1.9 A Classification of Mathematical Models 70

3.2 Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management 70

3.2.1 A Systems Typology in Integrated Disaster Management 71

3.2.2 Systems View of Disaster Management 73

3.2.3 Systems View of Disaster Management Activities 76

3.3 System Formulation Examples 77

3.3.1 Dynamics of Epidemics 78

3.3.2 Shortest Supply Route 80

3.3.3 Resources Allocation 81

References 82

Exercises 83

4 Introduction to Methods and Tools for a Systems Approach to Management of Disaster 85

4.1 Simulation 85

4.2 System Dynamics Simulation 89

4.3 Optimization 92

4.4 Multiobjective Analysis 95

4.5 Disaster Risk Management 97

4.5.1 Sources of Uncertainty 98

4.5.2 Conceptual Risk Definitions 100

4.5.3 Probabilistic Approach 102

4.5.4 A Fuzzy Set Approach 103

4.6 Computer Support: Decision Support Systems 106

References 109

Exercises 111

III Implementation of Systems Analysis to Management of Disasters 113

5 Simulation 115

5.1 Definitions 115

5.2 System Dynamics Simulation 116

5.2.1 Introduction 116

5.2.2 System Structure and Patterns of Behavior 117

5.3 System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Process 126

5.3.1 Causal Loop Diagram 127

5.3.2 Stock and Flow Diagram 131

5.3.3 Generic Principles of System Dynamics Simulation Modeling 133

5.3.4 Numerical Simulation 137

5.3.5 Policy Design and EvaluationModel Use 141

5.4 System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Examples 141

5.4.1 A Simple Flu Epidemic Model 142

5.4.2 A More Complex Flu Epidemic Model with Recovery 146

5.5 An Example of Disaster Management SimulationFlood Evacuation Simulation Model 152

5.5.1 Introduction 152 5.5.2 Hum...