Ecosystem Dynamics

Ecosystem Dynamics focuses on long-term terrestrial
ecosystems and their changing relationships with human
societies. The unique aspect of this text is the long-time
scale under consideration as data and insights from the last 10,000
years are used to place present-day ecosystem status into a
temporal perspective and to test models that generate forecasts of
future conditions. Descriptions and assessments of some of the
current modelling tools that are used, along with their
uncertainties and assumptions, are an important feature of this
book. An overarching theme explores the dynamic interactions
between human societies and ecosystem functioning and services.

This book is authoritative but accessible and provides a useful
background for all students, practitioners, and researchers
interested in the subject.

Autorentext
Richard H.W. Bradshaw
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK

Martin T. Sykes
Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sweden

Klappentext

This book examines terrestrial ecosystem dynamics from the past and into the future. Many ecosystems today are responding to the dual pressures of rapid climate change and intensified human impact and this analysis places these changes in a temporal context to show the past state of ecosystems and explore where they might be headed. A major theme is the dynamic interaction between human societies and ecosystem functioning and services. The book offers a special analysis of the cultural services provided by ecosystems through time. Data and insights from the last 10 000 years are used to place present-day ecosystem status into a temporal perspective and to test models that generate forecasts of future conditions.

There are detailed descriptions of research tools such as ecosystem and bioclimatic models, and the authors introduce the data used for the analysis of ecological processes past, present and future. Various types of future scenario are discussed and some sociological aspects are covered in addition to ecological and climatic issues. The analyses of trends in biodiversity highlight some emergent principles for conservation and generate suggestions of how to handle dynamic processes in land management.

The book is authoritative but accessible and provides a useful background for undergraduate and postgraduate students of geography, geology, environmental sciences, conservation, ecology, biology and paleoecology, as well as practitioners and researchers interested in the balance between culture and nature and in future sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems.

• Unique in its long timescale (last 10 000 years), this text places modern ecosystems within a dynamic perspective

• Unites key aspects from bioscience and Earth science in an innovative and relevant manner

• Includes palaeodatamodel comparisons to test the ecosystem models used to forecast future conditions

• Describes interactions between society and ecosystem functions and services

• Provides temporal analysis of ecosystem services to generate insight into future sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems

• Describes the implications of ecosystem dynamics for conservation biology

• Full colour throughout, including maps, tables, figures and photographs

• Global case studies

• Companion Web site

Zusammenfassung
Ecosystem Dynamics focuses on long-term terrestrial ecosystems and their changing relationships with human societies. The unique aspect of this text is the long-time scale under consideration as data and insights from the last 10,000 years are used to place present-day ecosystem status into a temporal perspective and to test models that generate forecasts of future conditions. Descriptions and assessments of some of the current modelling tools that are used, along with their uncertainties and assumptions, are an important feature of this book. An overarching theme explores the dynamic interactions between human societies and ecosystem functioning and services. This book is authoritative but accessible and provides a useful background for all students, practitioners, and researchers interested in the subject.

Inhalt

Acknowledgements ix

About the companion website xi

1 Where Are We and How Did We Arrive Here? 1

1.1 Why this book? 1

1.2 Ecosystems in crisis 2

1.3 Relevance of the past 5

1.4 Forecasting the future 7

1.5 Chapter details and logic 9

1.6 For whom is the book intended? 12

1.7 Four key questions and the links to policy 13

2 Modelling 15

2.1 Introduction 15

2.1.1 How did these models develop? 16

2.1.2 Climate data, climate and earth system models 16

2.2 Background ecosystem, vegetation and species models 18

2.2.1 Vegetation models 18

2.2.2 Species-level modelling 25

2.2.3 Equilibrium physiologically-based modelling of species 27

2.2.4 Statistical equilibrium modelling of species 30

2.2.5 Some uncertainties and assumptions that apply generally to bioclimatic models 31

2.2.6 Models of intermediate complexity 32

2.2.7 Biogeochemistry integrated into equilibrium biome models 33

2.2.8 Integrating biome and NPP models 35

2.3 Dynamic modelling 36

2.3.1 Local to landscape scales: forest gap modelling 36

2.3.2 Regional to global scales: dynamic global vegetation modelling 38

2.4 Integrating models 44

2.4.1 Earth system models 44

2.4.2 Integrated assessment models 45

2.4.3 Agent-based models 48

2.5 Further reading 48

3 Data 49

3.1 Introduction 49

3.2 Which data are relevant? 50

3.3 Ecosystem dynamics: direct observation 51

3.3.1 Phenology 51

3.3.2 Biological monitoring 53

3.4 Ecosystem dynamics: indirect measurement or proxy data 56

3.4.1 Historical ecology 57

3.4.2 Palaeoecology 58

3.4.3 Pollen analysis 60

3.4.4 Charcoal and fire scars 63

3.5 Drivers of ecosystem dynamics 67

3.5.1 Palaeoclimates and greenhouse gases 67

3.5.2 Human impact on ecosystem dynamics 69

3.6 Databases 70

3.7 Gaps in available data and approaches 70

4 Climate Change and Millennial Ecosystem Dynamics: A Complex Relationship 73

4.1 Introduction 73

4.2 Reconstructing climate from biological data 74

4.3 The very long records of vegetation dynamics 78

4.4 Holocene records 81

4.5 Modelling of Holocene vegetation dynamics to help understand pollen data 83

4.5.1 Climate or people? The TiliaFagus transition in Draved Forest, Denmark 86

4.5.2 Climate or migration biology? The late-Holocene spread of Picea into southern Fennoscandia 87

4.5.3 Fagus in Europe 91

4.6 Simulating Fennoscandian Holocene forest dynamics 94

4.6.1 Holocene dynamics of the Sahara 98

4.7 Climate and megafaunal extinction 101

4.7.1 Recent range shifts 103

4.8 So how important is climate change for future millennial ecosystem dynamics? 103

5 The Role of Episodic Events in Millennial Ecosystem Dynamics: Where the Wild Strawberries Grow 109

5.1 Introduction 109

5.2 Fire 115

5.2.1 Past to present fire 116

5.2.2 Present to future fire 121

5.2.3 Modelling fire 121

5.2.4 Modelling ignition 122

5.2.5 Modelling fire spread 124

5.2.6 Datamodel comparison 128

5.3 Forest pathogens during the Holocene 131

5.4 Hurricanes and wind damage 135

5.5 Conclusion 139

6 The Impact of Past and Future Human Exploitation on Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics 141

6.1 Introduction 141

6.2 Denmark: case study of human impact during the Holocene 146

6.3 Islands: sensitive indicators of human impact 152

6.4 Human influence on Mediterranean, temperate and boreal forests 157

6.5 The tropics 163

6.6 Spatial upscaling of the timing and ecosystem consequences of human impact 164 **7 Millennial Ecosyste...