The Years of High Econometrics

A fascinating and comprehensive history, this book explores the most important transformation in twentieth century economics: the creation of econometrics.Containing fresh archival material that has not been published before and taking Ragnar Frisch as the narrator, Francisco Louca discusses both the keys events - the establishment of the Econometric Society, the Cowles Commission and the journal Econometrica - and the major players - economists like Wesley Mitchell, mathematicians like John von Neumann and statisticians like Karl Pearson - in history that shaped the development of econometrics. He discusses the evolution of their thought, detailing the debates, the quarrels and the interrogations that crystallized their work and even offers a conclusion of sorts, suggesting that some of the more influential thinkers abandoned econometrics or became critical of its development. International in scope and appeal, The Years of High Econometrics is an excellent accompaniment for students taking courses on probability, econometric methods and the history of economic thought.

Autorentext

Francisco Lou is Associate Professor of Economics at ISEG (Lisbon), where he teaches macroeconomics and the history of economics.

He is part of a research team on complexity in economics, and published several books and a number of papers, namely in economic journals (Cambridge Journal of Economics, Economic Journal, History of Political Economy, etc.) but also in journals of theoretical physics (Physica A, etc.).

He got the prize of the History of Economics Association for the best paper published in 1999.

He was elected member of Parliament in 1999, and reelected in 2002 and 2005 (for the Left Block), serving currently at the Budget Commission. Lou was involved in a major reform of the fiscal laws in Portugal (2000) as well as in other legislation on economic and social matters.

Francisco Lou is Associate Professor of Economics at ISEG (Lisbon), where he teaches macroeconomics and the history of economics.

He is part of a research team on complexity in economics, and published several books and a number of papers, namely in economic journals (Cambridge Journal of Economics, Economic Journal, History of Political Economy, etc.) but also in journals of theoretical physics (Physica A, etc.).

He got the prize of the History of Economics Association for the best paper published in 1999.

He was elected member of Parliament in 1999, and reelected in 2002 and 2005 (for the Left Block), serving currently at the Budget Commission. Lou was involved in a major reform of the fiscal laws in Portugal (2000) as well as in other legislation on economic and social matters.

Inhalt

Introduction Part 1: Foundation 1. 'Not Afraid of the Impossible': Ragnar Frisch, 1895-1973 2. The Emergence of Social Physics: The Econometric People are Assembled 3. The Years of High Theory Part 2: Construction 4. What Counts is What Can be Counted 5. Particles or Humans: Paradoxes of Mechanics Part 3: Debates 6. Challenging Keynes: The Econometric Movement Builds its Trenches 7. Intriguing Pendula: Delights and Dangers of Econometric Conversation 8. Quod Errat Demonstrandum: The Concept of Probability Puzzling the Econometricians Part 4: Theory and Practice at the Edge 9. Chaos or Randomness 10. Is Capitalism Doomed?: A Nobel Discussion 11. Prometheus Tired of War 12. Conclusion: A Brave New World