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A landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage, this book provides the most comprehensive, and understandable, analysis to date about climate and its effects on the people and landscapes of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah-including the U.S.-Mexico border region and the lands of Native Nations.
Autorentext
Gregg Garfin is Deputy Director for Science Translation & Outreach, Institute of the Environment at the University of Arizona. He is a co-investigator and former Project Manager with the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, a NOAA-funded integrated assessment designed to identify and evaluate climate impacts on human and natural systems in the Southwest.
Inhalt
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Chapter 1: Summary for Decision Makers
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Observed Recent Climatic Change in the Southwest
1.3 Projected Future Climatic Change in the Southwest
1.4 Recent and Future Effects of Climatic Change in the Southwest
Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
Coastal systems
Water
Human health
Additional effects of climate change
1.5 Choices for Adjusting to Climate and Climate Change
1.6 Key Unknowns
References
CONTEXT
Chapter 2: Overview
2.1 Introduction
What is an assessment?
2.2 Context and Scope
2.3 Other Southwest Region Climate Assessments
2.4 Sponsors and Authors of this Report
2.5 Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty
2.6 Accountability and Review
2.7 Organization of This Report
References
Chapter 3: The Changing Southwest
3.1 Lay of the Land: Geographical Themes and Features
Natural features
Human geography
Public lands
Population
Natural resource economy
3.2 Land Use and Land Cover
Trends for urban and exurban development
References
Appendix
WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWEST
Chapter 4: Present Weather and Climate: Average Conditions
4.1 Introduction
4.2 General Climate Characteristics
Surface-air temperature
Precipitation
Snowfall, snowpack, and water resources
4.3 Major Climate and Weather Events
Drought
Winter storms
Floods
Thunderstorms
Temperature extremes
Air quality
4.4 Climate Variability
References
Chapter 5: Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Climate of the First Decade of the Twenty-first Century
5.3 Climate Trends for 1901-2010
5.4 Extreme Weather Variability During 1901-2010
5.5 Summertime Drought During 1901-2010
5.6 Hydroclimatic Variability During 1901-2010
5.7 Paleoclimate of the Southwest United States
Paleotemperature
Paleodrought
Paleo streamflow
5.8 Future Monitoring and Science Needs
References
Appendix
Chapter 6: Future Climate: Projected Average
6.1 Global Climate Models: Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling
6.2 Climate Scenarios
6.3 Data Sources
6.4 Temperature Projections
6.5 Projections of Other Temperature Variables
6.6 Precipitation Projections
6.7 Atmospheric Circulation Changes
6.8 North American Monsoon
6.9 Changes in Precipitation-related Measures
References
Chapter 7: Future Climate: Projected Extremes
7.1 Introduction
7.2. Heat Waves
Heat wave index
Projections
7.3 Wintertime Cold Outbreaks
7.4 Precipitation
General results and key uncertainties
North American monsoon (NAM)
Atmospheric rivers
Hail on the Colorado Front Range
7.5 Surface Hydrology
Flooding
Drought
7.6 Fire Weather
Santa Ana winds
7.7 Discussion and Key Uncertainties
Irreversible changes and tipping points
References
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST
Chapter 8: Natural Ecosystems
8.1 Introduction: Climate, Climate Change, and Ecosystems of the Southwest
8.2 Phenology and Species Interactions
Phenology and interactions among species in terrestrial systems
Interactions in freshwater systems
8.3 Southwestern Deserts
8.4 Southwestern Forests
Temperature, precipitation, and pests and pathogens
Fire
References
Chapter 9: Coastal Issues
9.1 Coastal Assets
9.2 Observed Threats
Overview
Threats to the physical environment
Threats to the built environment
9.3 Ocean and Coastal Impacts to Ecosystems
Overview
Sea-level rise
Changes in ocean temperature and dynamics
Ocean acidification
9.4 Coastal Impacts to Communities
Overview
Airport infrastructure
Vehicular transportation infrastructure
Economy, culture, and identity
9.5 Managing Coastal Climate Risks
Overview
Level of preparedness and engagement in adaptation planning
Barriers to adaptation
References
Appendix
Chapter 10: Water: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Physical Changes to the Water Cycle
10.3 Human and Natural Systems Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities
10.4 Water Sector Adaptation Activities
10.5 Planning Techniques and Stationarity
10.6 Potential Supply and Demand Strategies and Solutions
10.7 Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation
10.8 Federal Adaptation Initiatives
10.9 SECURE Water Act Overview
10.10 Western States Federal Agency Support Team (WestFAST)
10.11 Climate Change and Water Working Group (CCAWWG)
10.12 State Adaptation Efforts
10.13 Regional and Municipal Adaptation Efforts
References
Chapter 11: Agriculture and Ranching
11.1 Distinctive Features of Southwestern Agriculture
11.2 Implications for Specialty Crops
11.3 On-farm Water Management
11.4 System-wide Water Management: Lessons from Programming Models of Water Allocation
Sustained drought in California
Water availability and crop yields in California
Effects of adaptation measures in California
Economic and land-use projections in California
Agriculture in Nevada's Great Basin
Water transfers in Rio Grande Basin
Severe drought in Rio Grande Basin
Drought and Arizona's agriculture
Reduced water supplies across the Southwest
Lessons from simulation studies
11.5 Ranching Adaptations to Multi-year Drought
11.6 Disaster Relief Programs and Climate Adaptation
References
Chapter 12: Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Energy in the Southwest: Past and Present
12.3 Potential Climate Impacts on Energy
Climate-induced impacts to peak and annual electricity demand
Vulnerability of electricity generation to climate impacts
Vulnerability of electricity distribution to climate impacts
Vulnerability of infrastructure to indirect climate impacts
Climate impacts on renewable source intensity
Evolution of the energy sector
Climate impacts on primary energy production
Cost of climate change
References
Chapter 13: Urban Areas
13.1 Cities in the Southwest
Observed changes in climatic trends in major cities in the Southwest
Urban processes that contribute to climate change
Government characteristics of large metropolitan regions in the Southwest
Southwest cities as distinctive federal creations
13.2 Pathways Through which Climate Change Will Affect Cities in the Southwest
Fire hazards
The built environment
Climate change and urban water
13.3 Critical Missing Data and Monitoring in Cities
References
Chapter 14: Transportation
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Passenger Transportation Trends in the Southwest
14.3 Freight Movement in the Southwest
14.4 Impacts of Climate Change
Direct impacts
Indirect impacts
14.5 Major Vulnerabilities and Uncertainties
Disruptions to the transportation system
References
Chapter 15: Human Health
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Current Climate-Related Health Concerns in the Southwest
Air quality
Heat extremes
Wildfires
Permissive ecology
15.3 Climate Change and Potential Health Implications
Emissions and air pollution
Increases in …